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In Search of a Warning Strategy Against Exchange-rate Attacks: Forecasting Tactics Using Artificial Neural Networks

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Author Info

  • Andreou, Andreas S.
  • Zombanakis, George A.
  • Georgopoulos, E. F.
  • Likothanassis, S. D.

Abstract

The contribution that this paper aspires to make is the prediction of an oncoming attack against the domestic currency, something that is expected to increase the possibilities of successful hedging by the authorities. The analysis has focused on the Greek Drachma,which has suffered a series of attacks during the past few years, thus offering a variety of such "shock" incidents accompanied by frequent interventions by the authorities. The prediction exercised here is performed in a discrete dynamics environment, based on the daily fluctuations of the interbank overnight interest rate, using artificial neural networks enhanced by genetic algorithms. The results obtained on the basis of the forecasting performance have been considered most encouraging, in providing a successful prediction of an oncoming attack against the domestic currency.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18197/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18197.

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Date of creation: Mar 2000
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18197

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Related research

Keywords: Shocks; Interest-rate; Forecasting; Neural-networks; Genetic algorithms;

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References

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  1. West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Andreou, A. & Georgakopoulos, E. & Likothanassis, S. & Zombanakis, George A., 1998. "Testing Currency Predictability Using An Evolutionary Neural Network Model," MPRA Paper 51483, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Mar 1998.
  3. Koedijk, Kees G & Kool, Clemens J M, 1994. "Tail Estimates and the EMS Target Zone," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 153-65, June.
  4. Marsh, Ian W. & Power, David M., 1996. "A note on the performance of foreign exchange forecasters in a portfolio framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 605-613, April.
  5. Pierre Siklos & Rod Tarajos, 1996. "Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-59, January.
  6. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  7. Pavlos Karadeloglou & Christos Papazoglou & George Zombanakis, 1998. "Is the Exchange Rate an Effective Anti-inflationary Policy Instrument?," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 2(1), pages 47-72, Summer.
  8. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
  9. Andreou, A. S. & Zombanakis, George A. & Likothanassis, S. D. & Georgakopoulos, E., 1998. "Modeling And Forecasting Exchange-Rate Shocks," MPRA Paper 51539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 1998.
  10. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Leventakis, John A., 1989. "The effectiveness of devaluation: A general equilibrium assessment with reference to Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-271.
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