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Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicación a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta española

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  • M. Araceli Rodríguez López
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    Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Studies on the Spanish Economy with number 90.

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    Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:90

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1984. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 208-17, May.
    2. Pierre Siklos & Rod Tarajos, 1996. "Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-59, January.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
    5. Masson, Paul R, 1995. "Gaining and Losing ERM Credibility: The Case of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 571-82, May.
    6. Paul R. Masson & Allan Drazen, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," IMF Working Papers 94/49, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    9. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    10. J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 887, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    11. Werner, Alejandro M., 1995. "Exchange rate target zones, realignments and the interest rate differential: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 353-367, November.
    12. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    13. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
    14. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August.
    15. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
    16. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
    19. Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
    20. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    21. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    23. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
    24. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    25. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    26. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    27. Ioannis Halikias, 1994. "Testing the Credibility of Belgium's Exchange Rate Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 350-366, June.
    28. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
    29. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
    30. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "A regime-switching approach to the study of speculative attacks: A focus on EMS crises," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 299-334.
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