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Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991

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Author Info
Hans Lindberg
Lars E.O. Svensson
Paul Soderlind

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Abstract

Devaluation expectations for the Swedish krona are estimated for the period 1982-1991 with several methods. First the "simplest test" is applied under either only the minimal assumption of "no positive minimum profit" or the additional assumption of uncovered interest parity. Then a more precise method suggested by Bertola and Svensson is used, in which expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, estimated in several ways, are subtracted from interest rate differentials. In addition the probability density of the time of devaluations is estimated. Finally, estimated devaluation expectations are to some extent explained by a few macrovariables and parliament elections.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3918.

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Date of creation: Nov 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3918

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Lindberg, H. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Testing the Basic Target Zone Model on Swedish Data," Papers 488, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1992. "Target Zones and Forward Rates In a Model with Repeated Realignments," IMF Working Papers 92/22, International Monetary Fund.
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  9. Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 217-292. [Downloadable!]
  10. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS," IMF Working Papers 91/96, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Weber, Axel A, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bodnar, G., 1991. "Target Zones and Euro-Rates: A Model of Eurocurrency Interest Rate Differentials in the European Monetary System," Papers 91-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  17. Frankel, Jeffrey & Phillips, Steven, 1992. "The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 791-816, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," NBER Working Papers 3466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Augusto López-Claros & Horst Ungerer & Thomas H. Mayer & Jouko J. Hauvonen, 1990. "The European Monetary System: Developments and Perspectives," IMF Occasional Papers 73, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  23. Axel A. Weber, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeitraege 20-91, Universität Siegen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," NBER Working Papers 4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
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