Exchange Rate Expectations, the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones

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Exchange Rate Expectations, the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones

Author Info

Marianne Nessen

Abstract

Expected rates of depreciation within the target zone for the exchange rates of four Nordic countries during 1979â€“1989 are estimated. Combining these with expected rates of devaluation estimated by Edin and Vredin (1993) we obtain time-series of the overall expected exchange rate change. We can thus construct time-series of foreign exchange risk premia and expectational errors, following which we decompose the forward exchange rate bias into portions attributable to expectational errors and/or risk premia. The conclusion is that time-varying risk premia appear to be the dominant cause of deviations from uncovered interest parity while the role of expectational errors is less clear. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 8 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 99-136
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:8:y:1997:i:2:p:99-136

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Karen K. Lewis, 1994. "Puzzles in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 4951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
Lars Hörngren & Anders Vredin, 1989. "Exchange risk premia in a currency basket system," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 311-325, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cavaglia, Stefano M F G & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "On the Biasedness of Forward Foreign Exchange Rates: Irrationality or Risk Premia?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 321-43, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," NBER Working Papers 3685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Expected and predicted realignments: the FF/DM exchange rate during the EMS," International Finance Discussion Papers 395, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E., 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: the FF/DM Exchange Rate during the EMS," Papers 485, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
Lewis, K.K., 1994. "Puzzles in international Financial Markets," Weiss Center Working Papers 94-7, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-44, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1999. "The risk premium, exchange rate expectations, and the forward exchange rate: Estimates for the Yen-Dollar rate," MPRA Paper 9775, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen--Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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