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Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Rose, Andrew K
Svensson, Lars E O
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An empirical model of time-varying realignment in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest rate differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French franc/Deutschmark data during the European Monetary System. The behaviour of estimated expected rates of depreciation accord well with the theoretical model of Bertola-Svensson (1990). We are also able to predict actual realignments with some success.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
552.
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Date of creation: Jul 1991Date of revision:
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Keywords: Devaluation European Monetary System Exchange Rate Realignment Target Zone Other versions of this item:
Paper Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995.
"Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS ,"
NBER Working Papers
3685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991.
"Expected and predicted realignments: the FF/DM exchange rate during the EMS ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
395, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E., 1991.
"Expected and Predicted Realignments: the FF/DM Exchange Rate during the EMS ,"
Papers
485, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
Find related papers by JEL classification: F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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CEPR Discussion Papers
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Robert P. Flood & Donald J. Mathieson & Andrew K. Rose, 1991.
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Svensson, Lars E O, 1991.
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Other versions: Pagan, Adrian, 1984.
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Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990.
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Svensson, L.E.O., 1990.
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Svensson, Lars E O, 1991.
"The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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"The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data ,"
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"The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
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Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003.
"A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method" ,"
Memorandum
16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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G. Dufrenot & L. Mathieu & V. Mignon, & A. Peguin-Feissolle, 2002.
"Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates : some evidence from nonlinear cointegration ,"
THEMA Working Papers
2002-29, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
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Other versions: Christopher J. Neely, 1994.
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Marianne Nessen, 1997.
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Bernard Dumas & L. Peter Jennergren & Bertil Naslund, 1993.
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Pierre Siklos & Rod Tarajos, 1996.
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Stefano Cavaglia & Kees Koedijk & Peter Vlaar, 1994.
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Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991.
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Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994.
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Svensson, L.E.O., 1992.
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Mustapha Baghli, 2005.
"Nonlinear Error-Correction Models for the FF/DM Rate ,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics ,
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Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997.
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"Simple credibility tests of the ERM bands for the pound sterling and the Italian lira ,"
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Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994.
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Other versions: Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993.
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"Análisis de la Zona Objetivo para el Tipo de Cambio en Chile ,"
Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics) ,
Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 30(90), pages 179-198.
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Margarida Abreu, 2003.
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