Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS
AbstractThe paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutschmark, for the period March 1979 - May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is non-trivial because exchange rates within ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behaviour. The adjustment is essential since expected rates of depreciation within the band are usually of about the same magnitude as interest rate differentials.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm - International Economic Studies in its series Papers with number 493.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.
Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
More information through EDIRC
currencies ; interest rate ; exchange rate ; behaviour;
Other versions of this item:
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS," IMF Working Papers 91/96, International Monetary Fund.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
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- Milind Shrikhande, 1997. "The cost of doing business abroad and international capital market equilibrium," Working Paper 97-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.
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"Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991,"
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- Gerlach, Stefan, 1995. "Adjustable pegs vs. single currencies: How valuable is the option to realign?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1155-1170, June.
- Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 4291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
- Olavi Rantala, 1992. "An econometric diffusion model of exchange rate movements within a band : implications for interest rate differential and credibility of exchange rate policy," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 98-109, Autumn.
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