The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?
AbstractWe update tests of the credibility of the EMS exchange rate target zones. Our main methodological innovation is to use a survey of exchange rate forecasts, as well as interest differentials, in measuring exchange rate expectations. We investigate the hypothesis -- suggested by the apparent stabilization of the EMS and by recent institutional developments -- that the EMS target zones have experienced an increase in credibility since their 1987 realignment. The evidence tends to support this hypothesis for most currencies. We also examine the empirical failure of standard target zone models, but find no evidence that it can be attributed to mismeasurement of expectations. Finally, we consider an alternative credibility measure which captures the importance of possible realignments in overall expectations of exchange rate changes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3819.
Date of creation: Jan 1994
Date of revision:
Note: ITI IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- One (labour) market, one money.
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-04-22 21:10:00
- Mehr Europa: Du mußt es dreimal sagen
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-06-03 22:07:00
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1993.
"Fixed Exchange Rates As a Means to Price Stability: What Have we Learned?,"
553, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "Fixed exchange rates as a means to price stability: What have we learned?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 447-468, April.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned," NBER Working Papers 4504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010.
"Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey of the Literature,"
GEMF Working Papers
2010-14, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, 04.
- Neely, Christopher J., 1999.
"Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 177-192, April.
- Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Target zones and conditional volatility: the role of realignments," Working Papers 1994-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991.
"Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991,"
NBER Working Papers
3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lindberg, H. & Svensson, L.E. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: the Swedish Krona 1982-1991," Papers 495, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998.
"Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, G.R.J. & Gray, S.F., 1997. "Target zones and exchange rates: An empirical investigation," Discussion Paper 1997-22, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.
- António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2008. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case," GEMF Working Papers 2008-03, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Distribution and Volatility under the Portuguese Target Zone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 261-282, September.
- Antoine Magnier & Benoît Cœuré, 1996. "Crédibilité et fondamentaux macro-économiques au sein du SME : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 113-146.
- Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 05/13, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignments of target zone exchange systems: what do we know?," Working Papers 1994-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Klaster, Michel A. & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2002. "Toward an econometric target zone model with endogenous devaluation risk for a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 509-529, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.