Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil

Author Info

Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract

This paper analyzes the empirical fit of a new approach to exchange rate target zones. Unlike most of the literature on target zones, we use an estimation procedure that takes explicitly into account the band constraints, and hence their effect on the expectations of agents. Crucially, we do not impose Uncovered Interest Parity to assess realignment expectations. Rather than a point estimate of the future exchange rate, we estimate the entire range of realizations anticipated by the markets, and the probability attributed to each range. We examine high-frequency Brazilian post-stabilization (stable) data in allowing for both realignment jumps and within-the-band jumps. Knowledge of the exchange rate distribution can be relevant not only to the private sector for the management of currency risk, but also to policymakers as a source of prompt market feedback to policy changes or other political and economic shocks.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper with number 2000004.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 32
Date of creation: 00 Mar 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2000004

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)
Fax: +32 10473945
Email:
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/econ
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Maryvonne NEYTS).

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2002-02-10 (All new papers)
NEP-IFN-2002-02-10 (International Finance)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jose M. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "Implied Exchange Rate Distributions: Evidence from OTC Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 6179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Krugman, P. & Miller, M., 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 394, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1993. "Why have a target zone?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38, pages 279-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Dominquez, Kathryn M. & Kenen, Peter B., 1992. "Intramarginal intervention in the EMS and the target-zone model of exchange-rate behavior," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1523-1532, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Kathryn M. Dominguez & Peter B. Kenen, 1993. "Intramarginal Intervention in the EMS and the Target-Zone Model of Exchange-Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Bertola, G. & Cabarello, R.J., 1990. "Target Zones And Realignments," Discussion Papers 1990_51, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
Lim, G. C. & Lye, J. N. & Martin, G. M. & Martin*, V. L., 1998. "The distribution of exchange rate returns and the pricing of currency options," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 351-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1992. "Target zones and the distribution of exchange rates: An estimation method," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 83-89, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lindberg, H. & Svensson, L.E. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: the Swedish Krona 1982-1991," Papers 495, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
Garber, P.M. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers 588, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
Other versions:
- Peter M. Garber & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 4971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Garber, Peter M. & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1995. "The operation and collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 1865-1911 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Girardin, Eric & Marimoutou, Velayoudom, 1997. "Estimating the credibility of an exchange rate target zone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 931-944, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," Papers 466, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," NBER Working Papers 3374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Alejandro M. Werner, 1995. "Target Zones and Realignment Expectations: The Israeli and Mexican Experience," IMF Working Papers 95/114, International Monetary Fund.
Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. " Intervention Policy and Mean Reversion in Exchange Rate Target Zones: The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 96(4), pages 499-513.
Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also computes impact factors for journals and working paper series.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-28.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.