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How Long do Unilateral Target Zones last?

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  • Dumas, B.
  • Svensson, L.E.O.

Abstract

We examine the expected survival time of a unilateral exchange rate target zone, when constraints on monetary policy prevent the central bank from exclusively focusing on defending the target zone. Generally, the width of the target zone has a negligible effect on the expected survival time, and the dominant determinants are reserve levels and the degree of real and monetary divergence between the country in question and the rest of the world. For seemingly realistic parameters, the expected survival time is fairly long: a few decades rather than a few years.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research in its series Weiss Center Working Papers with number 1991-2.

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Length: 6313 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:pennif:1991-2

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Keywords: exchange rate ; monetary policy ; central banks ; currencies;

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References

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  1. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1982. "A model of stochastic process switching," International Finance Discussion Papers 201, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August.
  3. Buiter, Willem H & Grilli, Vittorio, 1989. "The `Gold Standard Paradox' and Its Resolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks and the Design of SustainableExchange-Rate Zones," NBER Working Papers 3440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stephen W. Salant & Dale W. Henderson, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  7. Buiter, W., 1988. "A Viable Gold Standard Requires Flexible Monetary And Fiscal Policy," Papers 306, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  8. Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," Weiss Center Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  9. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  12. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, . "Monetary Contracting between Central Banks and the Design of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones (Reprint 035)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Staffan Ringbom, 2003. "Narrow Target Zones within Broad Zones: A Non-Speculative Exchange Rate Solution with Limited Resources," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 319-341, July.
  2. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
  3. Lin, Hwan C., 2008. "Forward-rate target zones and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 831-846, September.
  4. Broome, Simon, 2001. "The lifetime of a unilateral target zone: some extended results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, June.
  5. Simon Broome, 2005. "Limited Reserves and the Optimal Width of an Exchange Rate Target Zone," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 263-281, July.
  6. Raul A. Feliz & John H. Welch, 1993. "The credibility and performance of unilateral target zones: a comparison of the Mexican and Chilean cases," Research Paper 9331, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. Simon Broome, 2003. "Limited Reserves and the Optimal Width of an Exchange Rate Target zone," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1220803, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  8. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
  9. Bartolini, Leonardo & Prati, Alessandro, 1999. "Soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks: theory, and evidence from the ERM since August 1993," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-29, October.
  10. M. Sbracia & Alessandro Prati, 2002. "Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 02/3, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Pierre Siklos & Rod Tarajos, 1996. "Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-59, January.
  12. Carrera, Jose M., 1999. "Speculative attacks to currency target zones: A market microstructure approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 555-582, December.

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