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Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld

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Abstract

The collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance-of-payments crisis in which"speculators" fleeing from the domestic currency acquire a large portion of the central bank's foreign exchange holdings.Faced with such an attack, the central bank often withdraws temporarily from the foreign exchange market, allowing the exchange rate to float freely before devaluing and returning to a fixed-rate regime. This paper links the timing of the initial speculative attack to the magnitude of the expected devaluation and to the length of the transitional period off loating. An implication of the analysis is that there exist devaluations so sharp and transition periods so short that acrisis must occur the moment the market first learns that the current exchange parity will eventually be altered. For sufficiently long transition periods, the floating exchange rate"overshoots" its new peg before appreciating back toward it;for shorter periods, the rate depreciates monotonically to its new fixed level. Accordingly, the central bank's return tothe foreign exchange market can occasion a capital outflow or a capital inflow.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1103.

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Date of creation: Jul 1984
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Publication status: published as Obstfeld, Maurice. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation." Journalof Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 16, No. 2, (May 1984), pp. 208-217.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1103

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Virginie Boinet, . "How to avoid self-fulfilling crises," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-02, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper Serie B 418, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Willem H. Buiter, 1987. "Fiscal Prerequisites for a Viable Managed Exchange Rate Regime: A Non-technical Eclectic Introduction," NBER Working Papers 2041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Willem H. Buiter, 1988. "Borrowing to Defend the Exchange Rate and the Timing and Magnitude of Speculative Attacks," NBER Working Papers 1844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. James Bullard, 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: a reinterpretation," Working Papers 1991-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Willem H. Buiter, 1989. "A "Gold Standard" Isn't Viable Unless Supported by Sufficiently FlexibleMonetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1989. "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Robert E. Cumby & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Finanial Policy and Speculative Runs with a Crawling Peg: Argentina 1979-1981," NBER Working Papers 2376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Razzaque H. Bhatti, 2001. "Determining Pak Rupee Exchange Rates vis-à-vis Six Currencies of the Industrial World: Some Evidence Based on the Traditional Flow Model," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 885-897. [Downloadable!]
  12. Chin-Shien Lin & Haider A. Khan & Ying-Chieh Wang & Ruei-Yuan Chang, 2006. "A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-411, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  13. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of currency crises: an empirical analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Competitiveness, Realignment, and Speculation: The Role of Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 2539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignments of target zone exchange systems: what do we know?," Working Papers 1994-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  16. Virginie Boinet, 2002. "How to avoid self-fulfilling crises," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-02, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  17. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Miwa Hattori & Cuauhtemoc Calderon, 2004. "Error Correction Exchange Rate Modeling Evidence for Mexico," International Finance 0406001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Fernando Broner, 1999. "On the Timing of Balance of Payments Crises: Disaggregated Information and Interest Rate Policy," Economics Working Papers 840, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2002. [Downloadable!]
  19. Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," NBER Working Papers 3320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Feltenstein, Andrew & Morris, Stephen, 1988. "Fiscal stabilization and exchange rate instability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 74, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Sebastian Edwards, 1990. "Real and Monetary Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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