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The economics of currency crises and contagion: an introduction

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  • Paolo Pesenti
  • Cedric Tille

Abstract

Two theories of the causes of currency crises prevail in the economic literature. The first traces currency instability to countries' structural imbalances and weak policies; the second identifies arbitrary shifts in market expectations as the principal source of instability. The authors of this article contend that only a synthesis of these theories can capture the complexity of the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis. In their view, the crisis resulted from the interaction of structural weaknesses and volatile international capital markets. The authors also cite two other factors that contributed to the severity of the Asia crisis: inadequate supervision of the banking and financial sectors and the rapid transmission of the crisis across countries linked by trade and common credit sources.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 3-16

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2000:i:sep:p:3-16:n:v.6no.3

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Keywords: Financial crises ; Financial crises - Asia ; Asia;

References

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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Lessons from the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 7102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  8. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," NBER Working Papers 7139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
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  12. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
  13. V. V. Chari & Patrick Kehoe, 1997. "Hot Money," NBER Working Papers 6007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  18. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple Equilibria, Contagion, and the Emerging Market Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/164, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Chinn, Menzie D. & Dooley, Michael P. & Shrestha, Sona, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 659-681, August.
  21. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
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  23. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
  24. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Working Papers 8194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Tamim Bayoumi & Manmohan S. Kumar & Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction," IMF Working Papers 03/80, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
  4. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2000. "Asia's trade performance after the currency crisis," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 37-49.
  5. Akyuz, Yilmaz & Boratav, Korkut, 2003. "The Making of the Turkish Financial Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1549-1566, September.
  6. Mariano Beltrani & Juan Cuattromo, 2012. "Redefining Monetary Policy Limits: Towards an Expansion of its Role in Economic Development," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(67), pages 121-168, December.
  7. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  8. Biswa N. Bhattacharyay, 2009. "Towards a Macroprudential Surveillance and Remedial Policy Formulation System for Monitoring Financial Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2803, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller & Paul A. Natke, 2003. "Do Foreign Bank Operations Provide a Stabilizing Influence in Korea?," Working papers 2004-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  10. Garita, Gus & Zhou, Chen, 2009. "Can Financial Openness Help Avoid Currency Crises?," MPRA Paper 23166, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2010.
  11. Gus, Garita & Chen, Zhou, 2011. "Averting Currency Crises: The Pros and Cons of Financial Openness," MPRA Paper 30218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
  13. Lopes, José Mário & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A Markov regime switching model of crises and contagion: The case of the Iberian countries in the EMS," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1153.

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