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The economics of currency crises and contagion: an introduction

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Author Info
Paolo Pesenti
Cedric Tille

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Abstract

Two theories of the causes of currency crises prevail in the economic literature. The first traces currency instability to countries' structural imbalances and weak policies; the second identifies arbitrary shifts in market expectations as the principal source of instability. The authors of this article contend that only a synthesis of these theories can capture the complexity of the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis. In their view, the crisis resulted from the interaction of structural weaknesses and volatile international capital markets. The authors also cite two other factors that contributed to the severity of the Asia crisis: inadequate supervision of the banking and financial sectors and the rapid transmission of the crisis across countries linked by trade and common credit sources.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 3-16
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2000:i:sep:p:3-16:n:v.6no.3

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Keywords: Financial crises ; Financial crises - Asia ; Asia;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," NBER Working Papers 7139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1999. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 99-23, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  4. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Paul Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Dooley, Michael P. & Shrestha, Sona, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 659-681, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  22. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. V. V. Chari & Patrick Kehoe, 1997. "Hot Money," NBER Working Papers 6007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  25. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Giorgio Fazio & Tamim Bayoumi & Manmohan S. Kumar & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 03/80, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Timothy P. Opiela, 2001. "Risk pricing at financial institution in pre-crisis Thailand: implications for modeling the Thai crisis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 472-488.
  3. Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Working Papers 8194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2000. "Asia's trade performance after the currency crisis," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 37-49. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chantapong, Saovanee & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Cost Efficiency of Domestic and Foreign Banks in Thailand: Evidence from Panel Data," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 9, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bayoumi, Tamim & Fazio, Giorgio & Kumar, Manmohan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction," CEPR Discussion Papers 3870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller & Paul A. Natke, 2003. "Do Foreign Bank Operations Provide a Stabilizing Influence in Korea?," Working papers 2004-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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