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Assessing Central Bank Credibility During the EMS Crises: Comparing Option and Spot Market-Based Forecasts Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Markus Haas () (University of Munich)
Stefan Mittnik () (University of Munich)
Bruce Mizrach () (Rutgers University)
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Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach developed by Haas, Mittnik and Paolella (2004a) for fat-tailed conditionally heteroskedastic time series. We find, in an application to the ERM crises of 1992-93, that both the options and the underlying exchange rates provide useful information for policy makers.
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Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number
200424.
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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 12 Oct 2004Date of revision:
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Keywords: options implied probability densities GARCH fat-tails European Monetary System Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Bruce Mizrach, 2007.
"Recovering Probabilistic Information From Options Prices and the Underlying ,"
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