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Assessing Central Bank Credibility During the EMS Crises: Comparing Option and Spot Market-Based Forecasts

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Author Info
Markus Haas () (University of Munich)
Stefan Mittnik () (University of Munich)
Bruce Mizrach () (Rutgers University)

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Abstract

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach developed by Haas, Mittnik and Paolella (2004a) for fat-tailed conditionally heteroskedastic time series. We find, in an application to the ERM crises of 1992-93, that both the options and the underlying exchange rates provide useful information for policy makers.

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Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 200424.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 12 Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200424

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Related research
Keywords: options implied probability densities GARCH fat-tails European Monetary System

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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    Other versions:
  3. Holger Claessen & Stefan Mittnik, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 302-321, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bruce Mizrach, 2007. "Recovering Probabilistic Information From Options Prices and the Underlying," Departmental Working Papers 200702, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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