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Exchange rate expectations and risk premia in the European Monetary System: 1985–1991

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Author Info

  • Stefano Cavaglia
  • Kees Koedijk
  • Peter Vlaar

Abstract

Using a new set of survey data on EMS exchange rates, we investigate exchange rate expectations and risk premia between December 1985 and August 1991 to assess credibility of the system. It appears that the EMS—with the exception of the Italian lira—had become credible since early 1990. Moreover, one of the core predictions of the target zone literature—the inverse correlation between the position of the spot rate in the fluctuation band with its expected change—is corroborated for several currencies in the period after April 1990. Although the system appeared to be more credible, the persistence of interest differentials suggested the existence of risk premia. For four out of six currencies we find a significant relationship between the risk premium and the inflation differential relative to Germany. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1994

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF01000719
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 5 (1994)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 347-360

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:5:y:1994:i:4:p:347-360

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: EMS expectations; credibility; risk premia;

References

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  1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  2. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1983. "An Investigation of Risk and Return in Forward Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 1180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," NBER Working Papers 3685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  6. Krugman, P. & Miller, M., 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 394, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," NBER Working Papers 4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Phillips, Steven, 1992. "The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 791-816, October.
  10. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:1:p:17-43 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
  12. Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  13. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May.
  15. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15n3p5dt, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  16. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. " Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 395-406, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Vlaar, P. J. G. & Palm, F. C., 1997. "Inflation differentials and excess returns in the European Monetary System," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, April.

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