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Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability

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Author Info
Lars E.O. Svensson

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Abstract

The trade-off between interest rate variability and the width of an exchange rate target zone is examined, using the regulated Brownian motion model of target zones. It is shown that for narrow exchange rate bands, and for reasonable parameter values, the interest rate differential's asymptotic variability is increasing in the width of the exchange rate band; whereas for wide exchange rate bands it is slowly decreasing in the exchange rate band. The interest rate differential's instantaneous variability is decreasing in the width of the exchange rate band. A narrow target zone differs from a completely fixed exchange rate regime in that the interest rate differential's instantaneous standard deviation is high and even increases when the zone narrows. The model is extended to include a realignment/devaluation risk, as well as an endogenous exchange rate risk premium. The risk premium is small for reasonable parameter values and does not matter much.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3218.

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Date of creation: Oct 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3218

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bernard Dumas, . "Pricing Physical Assets Internationally: A Non Linear Heteroskedastic Process for Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 25-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Recent estimates of time-variation in the conditional variance and in the exchange risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bernard Dumas, . "Perishable Investment and Hysteresis in Capital Formation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 44-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  6. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1989. "Solving Stochastic Saddlepoint Systems: A Qualitative Treatment with Economic Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 308, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "The Implications of Mean-Variance Optimization for Four Questions in International Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1989. "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lars Hörngren & Anders Vredin, 1989. "Exchange risk premia in a currency basket system," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 311-325, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Solution to a Problem of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 237-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Froot, Kenneth & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 241-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Harry Garretsen & Klaas Knot & Erwin Nijsse, 1998. "Learning about fundamentals: The widening of the French ERM bands in 1993," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 25-41, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Peter Garber, 1990. "Before the Accord: U.S. Monetary-Financial Policy 1945-51," NBER Working Papers 3380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Wilfling, Bernd, 2001. "Interest Rate Volatility Prior to Monetary Union Under Alternative Pre-Switch Regimes," Discussion Paper Series 26277, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bernard Dumas & L. Peter Jennergren & Bertil Naslund, 1993. "Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 4522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," NBER Working Papers 3466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dai, Meixing, 1998. "Les effets stabilisants de la zone-cible du taux d’inflation
    [The stabilising effects of inflation-targeting zone]    ," MPRA Paper 13856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2001. [Downloadable!]
  9. Corrado, L. & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2002. "Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0209, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Mohamed Ben Abdallah & Iuliana Matei, 2005. "Crise et contagion : cas des pays de l'Europe de l'Est," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla05044, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Nolan, C. & Chadha, J.S., 1999. "Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching 'Monetary Mystique' in the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9921, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Zhen Zhu, 1997. "Dynamic Inconsistency And Exchange-Rate Target Zones: A Welfare Analysis," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 15-38, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Willem H. Buiter & Paolo A. Pesenti, 1990. "Rational Speculative Bubbles in an Exchange Rate Target Zone," NBER Working Papers 3467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Joon-Hwan Im, 2001. "Optimal Currency Target Zones: How Wide Should Exchange Rate Bands Be?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 61-93, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hwee Kwan Chow & Peter Nicholas Kriz & Roberto S. Mariano & Augustine H H Tan, 2007. "Financial Liberalization and Monetary Policy Cooperation in East Asia," Working Papers 03-2007, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. J. Fackler & L. Filer, 2004. "Exchange Rate Targeting and Economic Stabilization," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 565, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  20. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2008. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case," GEMF Working Papers 2008-03, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  21. Bernard Dumas & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "How Long do Unilateral Target Zones Last?," NBER Working Papers 3931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Arturo José Galindo, 1998. "Estimating Credibility In Colombia'S Exchange Rate Target Zone," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002604, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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