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Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets

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Author Info
Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Julián Andrada-Félix

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the relevance of non-linear predictors of high-frequency data in foreign exchange markets. To that end, we apply nearest-neighbour (NN) predictors, inspired by the literature on forecasting in non-linear dynamical systems, to exchange-rate series. The forecasting performance of univariate and multivariate versions of such NN predictors is first evaluated from the statistical point of view, using a battery of statistical tests. Secondly, we assess if NN predictors are capable of producing valuable economic signals in foreign exchange markets. The results show the potential usefulness of NN predictors not only as a helpful tool when forecast daily exchange data but also as a technical trading rules.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2002-05.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2002-05

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  3. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1997. "Combining Information in Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 441-444, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1992. "Chaotic behaviour in exchange-rate series : First results for the Peseta--U.S. dollar case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-211, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. repec:att:wimass:199520 is not listed on IDEAS
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  17. Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & María Dolores García-Artiles & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "An Empirical Evaluation of Non-Linear Trading Rules," Working Papers 2001-16, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  18. F. FernÁndez-RodrÍguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FÉlix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. W. A. Broock & J. A. Scheinkman & W. D. Dechert & B. LeBaron, 1996. "A test for independence based on the correlation dimension," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 197-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Cao, Liangyue & Soofi, Abdol S., 1999. "Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 421-430, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nicolas Wesner, 2004. "Searching for chaos on low frequency," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(1), pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
  2. Julián Andrada Félix & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez & María Dolores García Artiles, 2004. "Non-linear trading rules in the New York Stock Exchange," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2004-05, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC. [Downloadable!]
  3. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Emma García, . "Purchasing Power Parity Revisited," Working Papers 2003-20, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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