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Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS

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Author Info
Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez
Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez
Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

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Abstract

This paper provides some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). The study differs from previous research in the literature in three main respects. First, the main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of which have never been applied before to all of the currencies under study. This allows one to strengthen the results obtained in this paper. Second, a longer period than that of previous studies is analysed, covering the complete EMS history. Third, a comparison has been made of the prediction qualities of the different indicators, in order to explore their ability to capture the main ERM events (realignments, changes in the fluctuations bands and speculative pressures). Fourth, the indicators are applied to the experience of the new, modified ERM linking the currencies of non-euro area Member States to the euro, showing the relevance of this approach in the near future with the enlargement of the European Union.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 19 (October)
Pages: 2265-2287
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:19:p:2265-2287

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Weber, A.A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Papers 9103, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  2. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2000. "On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1999. " The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 173-210, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Banco de España Working Papers 9419, Banco de España.
  7. Weber, Axel A, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Óscar Bajo Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez, 2000. "Asymmetry In The Ems: New Evidence Based On Non-Linear Forecasts," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 0001, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra. [Downloadable!]
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  11. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 120-137 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Taylor, Stephen J, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 105-16, Supplemen.
  14. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Explaining Recent European Exchange-Rate Stability," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 1999. "Exchange Rate Volatility in the EMS before and after the Fall," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 717-22, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Banco de España Working Papers 9419, Banco de España.
  19. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Martín-González., . "Credibility in the EMS: New evidence using nonlinear forecastability tests," Working Papers 97-14, FEDEA.
  20. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Darvas, Zsolt, 1998. "Spurious Correlation in Exchange Rate Target Zone Modelling: Testing the Drift Adjustment Method on the US Dollar, Random Walk and Chaos," CEPR Discussion Papers 1890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Seiford, Lawrence M. & Thrall, Robert M., 1990. "Recent developments in DEA : The mathematical programming approach to frontier analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 7-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Axel A. Weber, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeitraege 20-91, Universität Siegen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  25. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 464, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Price Convergence in the European Car Market," Working Papers 2005-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:1:p:1401-1401 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Reyes Maroto Illera & Francisco Pérez Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2002-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Christian González-Martel & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Optimisation of Technical Rules by Genetic Algorithms: Evidence from the Madrid Stock Market," Working Papers 2001-14, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Frömmel, Michael, 2006. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries' Exchange Rates," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-333, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 847-850, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto Illera, . "Regimen Changes and Duration in the European Monetary System," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Amalia Morales Zumaquero & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 2006. "Macroeconomic Instability in the European Monetary System?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/06, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Francisco Pérez-Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Currency Crises and Political Factors: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2004-04, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Simóm Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto, . "Regimen duration in the EMR," Working Papers 2001-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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