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Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS

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  • Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez
  • Manuel Navarro-Ibanez
  • Jorge Perez-Rodriguez
  • Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

Abstract

This paper provides some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). The study differs from previous research in the literature in three main respects. First, the main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of which have never been applied before to all of the currencies under study. This allows one to strengthen the results obtained in this paper. Second, a longer period than that of previous studies is analysed, covering the complete EMS history. Third, a comparison has been made of the prediction qualities of the different indicators, in order to explore their ability to capture the main ERM events (realignments, changes in the fluctuations bands and speculative pressures). Fourth, the indicators are applied to the experience of the new, modified ERM linking the currencies of non-euro area Member States to the euro, showing the relevance of this approach in the near future with the enlargement of the European Union.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 19 ()
Pages: 2265-2287

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:19:p:2265-2287

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References

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  1. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 1999. "Exchange rate volatility in the EMS before and after the fall," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 717-722.
  2. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9419, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Explaining Recent European Exchange-Rate Stability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, April.
  4. Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9419, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1994. "The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS," Research Working Paper 94-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernado Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," Working Papers 97-24, FEDEA.
  8. Weber, Axel A, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. René Garcia & Ramazan Gençay, 1998. "Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities with Neural Networks and a Homogeneity Hint," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-35, CIRANO.
  10. Axel A. Weber, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 20-91, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  11. Taylor, Stephen J, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 105-16, Supplemen.
  12. Darvas, Zsolt, 1998. "Spurious Correlation in Exchange Rate Target Zone Modelling: Testing the Drift Adjustment Method on the US Dollar, Random Walk and Chaos," CEPR Discussion Papers 1890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr.
  14. Seiford, Lawrence M. & Thrall, Robert M., 1990. "Recent developments in DEA : The mathematical programming approach to frontier analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 7-38.
  15. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2000. "On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Frömmel, Michael, 2006. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries' Exchange Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-333, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  2. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Francisco Pérez-Bermejo, 2008. "Political and Institutional Factors in Regime Changes in the ERM: An Application of Duration Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 1049-1077, 08.
  3. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2004. "An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS," Working Papers 04-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  4. A. Morales-Zumaquero & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2008. "Macroeconomic instability in the European monetary system?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 965-983.
  5. Francisco Pérez-Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Currency Crises and Political Factors: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2004-04, FEDEA.
  6. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2007. "Price convergence in the European car market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 241-250.

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