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Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS

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  • de Jong, Eelke
  • Verschoor, Willem F.C.
  • Zwinkels, Remco C.J.

Abstract

We develop and estimate a dynamic heterogeneous agent model for the EMS period. Our empirical results suggest that the existence of heterogeneous interacting agents is indeed a possible explanation for the dynamics of exchange rates during the EMS. We find strong evidence of heterogeneous boundedly rational beliefs, and the fact that agents switch between these beliefs. Moreover, we show that the dynamic heterogeneous agent model outperforms the random walk and the static heterogeneous agents' model in out-of-sample forecasting in the large majority of country-horizon combinations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1652-1669

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:8:p:1652-1669

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Heterogeneous expectations The European Monetary System Non-linear modelling Agent-based finance;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1845-1854.
  2. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Weihong Huang & Huanhuan Zheng, 2011. "Estimating Behavioural Heterogeneity Under Regime Switching," Research Paper Series 290, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
  4. Michael King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2012. "The Market Microstructure Approach to Foreign Exchange: Looking Back and Looking Forward," Working Papers 54, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  5. de Zwart, G.J. & Markwat, T.D. & Swinkels, L.A.P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "The Economic Value of Fundamental and Technical Information in Emerging Currency Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-096-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  6. Dewachter, Hans & Houssa, Romain & Lyrio, Marco & Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2011. "Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Insper Working Papers wpe_260, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  7. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
  8. Bolt, W. & Demertzis, D. & Diks, C.G.H. & Van der Leij, M.J., 2011. "Complex Methods in Economics: An Example of Behavioral Heterogeneity in House Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  9. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations in Asset Pricing:Empirical Evidence from the S&P500," Research Paper Series 344, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  10. Baur, Dirk G. & Glover, Kristoffer J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 116-133.
  11. Olivier Damette & St├ęphane Goutte, 2014. "Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment," Working Papers halshs-00926805, HAL.

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