Heterogeneous Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics
AbstractThis paper presents a continuous-time model of exchange rates relying not only on macroeconomic factors but also having a market microstructure component. The driving macroeconomic factor is the interest rate differential, while the market microstructure element is described by the expectations of boundedly rational portfolio managers who use a weighted average of the expectations of fundamentalists and chartists. Within this framework, the different roles of the macroeconomic factors and market microstructure elements on the determination of the exchange rate are examined explicitly. We show that this simple model generates very complicated market behaviour, including the existence of multiple steady state equilibria, the deviations of the market exchange rate from the fundamental, and market fluctuations. Numerical simulation of the corresponding stochastic version of the model shows that the model is able to generate typical time series and volatility clustering patterns observed in exchange rate markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 243.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2009
Date of revision:
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Exchange rate; interest rate differential; heterogeneous expectations;
Other versions of this item:
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Min Zheng, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations and exchange rate dynamics," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 392-419, May.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-03-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2009-03-14 (International Finance)
- NEP-MST-2009-03-14 (Market Microstructure)
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- Wilson Sy, 2009. "Towards a national default option for low-cost superannuation," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages .46-67, July.
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