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Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone: a heterogeneous expectations approach

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Author Info
Bauer, Christian
De Grauwe, Paul
Reitz, Stefan

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Abstract

We present a simple behavioral model with chartists and fundamentalists and analyze their trading behavior in a floating regime and in a target zone regime. Regarding the floating regime the model replicates the well-known stylized facts like excessive volatility, fat tails, volatility clustering and the exchange rate disconnect. When introducing a credible target zone the exchange rate remains for a considerably long period in the center of the band albeit the fundamental exchange rate does not exhibit mean reversion tendencies. The resulting hump-shaped distribution of the exchange rate greatly reduces the frequency of central bank intervention. The introduction of a target zone regime significantly reduces exchange rate volatility by decreasing speculative activity in the FX market. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2007,11.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5864

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate; heterogeneous agents; target zones;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2008. "Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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