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Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?

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  • Reitz Stefan

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt, Germany)

  • Slopek Ulf

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt, Germany)

Abstract

While some of the recent surges in oil prices can be attributed to a robust global demand at a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame the impact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators. Whereas trend-extrapolating chartists may tend to destabilize the market, fundamentalists exercise a stabilizing effect on the price dynamics. Using monthly data for West Texas Intermediate oil prices, our STR-GARCH estimates indicate that oil price cycles may indeed emerge due to the non-linear interplay between different trader types.

Suggested Citation

  • Reitz Stefan & Slopek Ulf, 2009. "Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 270-283, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:10:y:2009:i:3:p:270-283
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2008.00456.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
    3. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
    4. Pastor, Daniel J. & Ewing, Bradley T., 2022. "Is there evidence of mild explosive behavior in Alaska North Slope crude oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    6. Joëts, Marc, 2015. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 204-215.
    7. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2757-2765, July.
    8. Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-64, July.
    9. Chan, Leo H. & Nguyen, Chi M. & Chan, Kam C., 2015. "A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-141.
    10. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2011. "What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation," Working Paper Series 1371, European Central Bank.
    11. Stefan Reitz & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? – Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    12. Ellen, Saskia ter & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Oil price dynamics: A behavioral finance approach with heterogeneous agents," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1427-1434, November.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:31 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2014. "Heterogeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in the US stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1947, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Conference papers 332210, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Saporta, Victoria & Trott, Matt & Tudela, Merxe, 2009. "What can be said about the rise and fall in oil prices?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 49(3), pages 215-225.
    17. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-031 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Thanopoulou, Helen & Yip, Tsz Leung, 2017. "Investors’ behavior and dynamics of ship prices: A heterogeneous agent model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 98-114.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price dynamics; endogenous bubbles; STR-GARCH model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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