Oil price Dynamics and Speculation. A Multivariate Financial Approach
AbstractThis paper assesses empirically whether speculation affects oil price dynamics. The growing presence of financial operators in the oil markets has led to the diffusion of trading techniques based on extrapolative expectations. Strategies of this kind foster feedback trading that may cause large departures of prices from their fundamental values. We investigate this hypothesis using a modified CAPM that follows Shiller (1984) and Sentana and Wadhwani (1992). At first, a univariate GARCH(1,1)-M is estimated assuming that the risk premium is a function of the conditional oil price volatility. The single factor model, however, is outperformed by the multifactor ICAPM (Merton, 1973) which takes into account a larger investment opportunity set. The analysis is then carried out using a trivariate CCC GARCH-M model with complex nonlinear conditional mean equations where oil price dynamics are associated with both stock market and exchange rate behavior. We find strong evidence that oil price shifts are negatively related to stock price and exchange rate changes and that a complex web of time varying first and second order conditional moment interactions affect both the CAPM and feedback trading components of the model. Despite the difficulties, we identify a significant role of speculation in the oil market which is consistent with the observed large daily upward and downward shifts in prices. A clear evidence that it is not a fundamentals-driven market. Thus, from a policy point of view - given the impact of volatile oil prices on global inflation and growth - actions that monitor more effectively speculative activities on commodity markets are to be welcomed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Economia e Dell'Impresa in its series Working Papers Series with number wp2008_15.rdf.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
oil price dynamics; feedback trading; speculation; multivariate GARCH-M;
Other versions of this item:
- Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-11-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2008-11-18 (Business Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2008-11-18 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991.
"Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990.
"Speculative Dynamics And The Role Of Feedback Traders,"
545, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," NBER Working Papers 3243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Koutmos, Gregory, 1997. "Feedback trading and the autocorrelation pattern of stock returns: further empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 625-636, August.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990.
" Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hyuk Choe & Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 1998.
"Do Foreign Investors Destabilize Stock Markets? The Korean Experience in 1997,"
NBER Working Papers
6661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
- Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009.
"Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?,"
German Economic Review,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 270-283, 08.
- Reitz, Stefan & Slopek, Ulf Dieter, 2008. "Nonlinear oil price dynamics: a tale of heterogeneous speculators?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Martin T. Bohl & Pierre Siklos, 2004.
"Empirical Evidence on Feedback Trading in Mature and Emerging Stock Markets,"
Research Paper Series
137, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Martin Bohl & Pierre Siklos, 2008. "Empirical evidence on feedback trading in mature and emerging stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1379-1389.
- Gregory Koutmos & Reza Saidi, 2001. "Positive feedback trading in emerging capital markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 291-297.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Warren Dean & Robert Faff, 2011. "Feedback trading and the behavioural ICAPM: multivariate evidence across international equity and bond markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(22), pages 1665-1678.
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
- John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
- Shaun K. Roache, 2008. "Commodities and the Market Price of Risk," IMF Working Papers 08/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-25, March.
- Mamatzakis, E & Remoundos, P, 2010. "Threshold Cointegration in BRENT crude futures market," MPRA Paper 19978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 248-255.
- Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
- Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Li, Chuan-Zhong & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1226-1233.
- Claudio Morana, 2013.
"Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation,"
225, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
- Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
- Claudio Morana, 2012. "Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation," Working Papers 2012.07, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009.
"Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2009-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
- Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
- Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2011.
"On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2011-25, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1170-1175.
- Mamatzakis, E. & Remoundos, P., 2011. "Testing for adjustment costs and regime shifts in BRENT crude futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1000-1008, May.
- Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012. "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 270-282.
- Robert Czudaj & Joscha Beckmann, 2012. "Spot and futures commodity markets and the unbiasedness hypothesis - evidence from a novel panel unit root test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1695-1707.
- Silvério, Renan & Szklo, Alexandre, 2012. "The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1799-1808.
- Kaufmann, Robert K., 2011. "The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 105-115, January.
- Marc Joëts, 2012. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-38, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giorgio Ricchiuti).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.