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Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data

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Author Info
Sentana, Enrique
Wadhwani, Sushil B

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Abstract

The authors investigate whether the degree of autocorrelation shown by high frequency stock returns changes with volatility. This may result from nontrading effects, feedback trading strategies, or variable risk aversion. The authors' results indicate that when volatility is low, daily (and hourly) stock returns exhibit positive autocorrelation, but when it is high, returns exhibit negative serial correlation. They also find an important asymmetry--negative serial correlation is more likely after price declines. This is consistent with price declines being more likely to induce positive feedback trading. The authors also find no significant relation between margin requirements and the autocorrelation of returns. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 102 (1992)
Issue (Month): 411 (March)
Pages: 415-25
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:102:y:1992:i:411:p:415-25

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  1. Kiseok Nam & Sei-Wan Kim & Augustine. Arize, 2006. "Mean Reversion of Short-Horizon Stock Returns: Asymmetry Property," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 137-163, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Georges Dionne & Pierre Duchesne & Maria Pacurar, 2005. "Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) Using Tick-by-Tick Data with Application to the Toronto Stock Exchange," Cahiers de recherche 0533, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Feedback Trading and Predictability of Stock Returns in Germany, 1880-1913," Kiel Working Papers 1213, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Frank Westermann, 2004. "Does the Euro affect the dynamic interactions of stock markets in Europe? Evidence from France, Germany and Italy," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 139-148, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Warren Dean & Robert Faff, 2008. "Evidence of feedback trading with Markov switching regimes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-151, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008. "Oil price Dynamics and Speculation. A Multivariate Financial Approach," Working Papers Series wp2008_15.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chayawadee Chai-Anant & Corinna Ho, 2008. "Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 245, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  8. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Nikiforos Laopodis, 2008. "Noise trading and autocorrelation interactions in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from developed and emerging economies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 271-293, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre Siklos, 2004. "Empirical Evidence on Feedback Trading in Mature and Emerging Stock Markets," Research Paper Series 137, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2008. "Volatility and VaR forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 169-196, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gregory Koutmos & Andreas Pericli & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2006. "Short-term Dynamics in the Cyprus Stock Exchange," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 205-216, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2005. "Long-memory and heterogeneous components in high frequency Pacific-Basin exchange rate volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 199-226, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Martin T. Bohl & Janusz Brzeszczynski, 2005. "Do Institutional Investors Destabilize Stock Prices? Evidence from an Emerging Market," CERT Discussion Papers 0501, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Hranaiova, Jana, 1999. "Price Behavior In Emerging Stock Markets: Cases Of Poland And Slovakia," Working Papers 7225, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
  16. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market I: rationality tests," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 401-420, September. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Currency Options and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2001-03, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  18. Christian Pierdzioch & Andrea Schertler, 2007. "Sources of Predictability of European Stock Markets for High-technology Firms," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael Thorpe, 2005. "Financial Sector Reform in China," CERT Discussion Papers 0502, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University. [Downloadable!]
  20. Simone Bianco & Roberto Ren\'o, 2006. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Quantitative Finance Papers physics/0610023, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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