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Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?

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  • Stefan Reitz
  • Ulf Slopek

Abstract

While some of the recent surges in oil prices can be attributed to a robust global demand at a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame the impact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators. Whereas trend-extrapolating chartists may tend to destabilize the market, fundamentalists exercise a stabilizing effect on the price dynamics. Using monthly data for West Texas Intermediate oil prices, our STR-GARCH estimates indicate that oil price cycles may indeed emerge due to the non-linear interplay between different trader types. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal Compilation Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2008.00456.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): (08)
Pages: 270-283

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:10:y:2009:i::p:270-283

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References

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  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets - Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 1/2012, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
  2. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
  3. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
  5. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
  6. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
  7. Claudio Morana, 2012. "Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation," Working Papers 2012.07, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  8. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-64, July.
  10. Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2011. "What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation," Working Paper Series 1371, European Central Bank.
  11. Ruelke, Jan C. & Frenkel, Michael R. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Expectations on the yen/dollar exchange rate - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 355-368, September.

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