Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stefan Reitz
  • Ulf Slopek

Abstract

While some of the recent surges in oil prices can be attributed to a robust global demand at a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame the impact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators. Whereas trend-extrapolating chartists may tend to destabilize the market, fundamentalists exercise a stabilizing effect on the price dynamics. Using monthly data for West Texas Intermediate oil prices, our STR-GARCH estimates indicate that oil price cycles may indeed emerge due to the non-linear interplay between different trader types. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal Compilation Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2008.00456.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): (08)
Pages: 270-283

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:10:y:2009:i::p:270-283

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1465-6485
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1465-6485

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October.
  3. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
  4. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank.
  6. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  7. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
  9. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
  10. Gallagher, Liam A & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Risky Arbitrage, Limits of Arbitrage, and Nonlinear Adjustment in the Dividend-Price Ratio," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 524-36, October.
  11. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
  12. Stefan Reitz & M.P Taylor, 2006. "The Coordination Channel of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 16, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  14. Stefan Reitz & Frank Westerhoff, 2007. "Commodity price cycles and heterogeneous speculators: a STAR–GARCH model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 231-244, September.
  15. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
  16. Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 4496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  18. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  20. Canoles, W. Bruce & Thompson, Sarahelen R. & Irwin, Scott H. & France, Virginia G., 1997. "An Analysis Of The Profiles And Motivations Of Habitual Commodity Speculators," ACE OFOR Reports 14768, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  21. Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  22. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  23. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  24. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
  2. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets: Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Discussion Papers 311, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  3. Claudio Morana, 2012. "Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation," Working Papers 2012.07, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1845-1854.
  5. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
  7. repec:ipg:wpaper:31 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2011. "What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation," Working Paper Series 1371, European Central Bank.
  9. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2013.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  10. Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The Effects of Japanese Interventions on FX-Forecast Heterogeneity," MPRA Paper 15603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
  12. Ruelke, Jan C. & Frenkel, Michael R. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Expectations on the yen/dollar exchange rate - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 355-368, September.
  13. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
  14. Ellen, Saskia ter & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Oil price dynamics: A behavioral finance approach with heterogeneous agents," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1427-1434, November.
  15. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:10:y:2009:i::p:270-283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.