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Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. C. John McDermott
  • Mr. Paul Cashin
  • Mr. Alasdair Scott

Abstract

This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. C. John McDermott & Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 1999/155, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1999/155
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; price; good; commodity price; slump; boom;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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