Booms and slumps in world commodity prices
AbstractThis paper examines the duration and magnitude of cycles in commodity prices. We find that for the majority of commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they tend to rebound in a subsequent boom. We also find little evidence of a consistent `shape' to cycles in commodity prices. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number G99/8.
Date of creation: Dec 1999
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
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