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The missing link: Using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity

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  • Issler, João Victor
  • Vahid, Farshid

Abstract

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for United States. Specifically, we use canonical correlation analysis to filter out the noisy information contained in the coincident series. Finally, to construct our preferred coincident index of the U.S. business cycle, we take account of measurement error in the commonly used coincident series by using instrumental-variable methods. The resulting index is a simple linear combination of four coincident series that encompassed currently popular coincident indices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 492.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:492

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  2. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Robert F. Engle & Joao Victor Issler, 1993. "Estimating Sectoral Cycles Using Cointegration and Common Features," NBER Working Papers 4529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  19. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, May.
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  21. Robert F. Engle & João Victor Issler, 1993. "Common trends and common cycles in Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 47(2), pages 149-176, April.
  22. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  23. Zellner, Arnold & Min, Chung-ki, 1998. "Forecasting turning points in countries' output growth rates: A response to Milton Friedman," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 203-206, November.
  24. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
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