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Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Viv B Hall (Victoria University of Wellington)
C. John McDermott (National Bank of New Zealand)
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We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson- Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number
0509013.
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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 12 Sep 2005Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0509013Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 40Contact details of provider: Web page: http://129.3.20.41
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Keywords: Classical business cycle Turning Points Regional business cycles Concordance statistics New Zealand Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes R12 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography) R15 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
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