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The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Issler, João Victor
Vahid, Farshid
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Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number
445.
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Date of creation: 01 May 2002Date of revision:
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Keywords: Other versions of this item:
Article Paper Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001.
"The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
429, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
[Downloadable!] Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2003.
"The missing link: Using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
492, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
[Downloadable!] Issler, J.V. & Vahid, F., 2001.
"The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity ,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
9/2001, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
[Downloadable!] Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2002.
"The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
450, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
[Downloadable!] References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997.
"Codependent cycles ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
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Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001.
"Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993.
"Testing for Common Features ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
Other versions: James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992.
"A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience ,"
NBER Working Papers
4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993.
"Common Trends and Common Cycles ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Watson, Mark W, 1994.
"Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
"Threshold Cointegration ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
Other versions: Hamilton, James D, 1989.
"A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998.
"An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999.
"Dissecting the Cycle ,"
Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series
wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
[Downloadable!]
Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993.
"Testing for Common Features: Reply ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998.
"Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Issler, João Victor & Engle, Robert F., 1994.
"Estimating Sectoral Cycles Using Cointegration and Common Features ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
232, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
Other versions: Chris R. Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier & Denise R. Osborn, 2000.
"Predicting Uk Business Cycle Regimes ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2000
134, Society for Computational Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2000.
"Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes ,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
02, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
[Downloadable!] Chris Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier, 2000.
"Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes ,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0953, Econometric Society.
[Downloadable!] Birchenhall, Chris R & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001.
"Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes ,"
Scottish Journal of Political Economy ,
Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-95, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988.
"Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988.
"A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators ,"
NBER Working Papers
2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000.
" Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles ,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-32, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Alain Hecq, 2005.
"Should we really care about building business cycle coincident indexes! ,"
Applied Economics Letters ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 141-144, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Athanasopoulos, George & Issler, João Victor & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2005.
"Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
589, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2008.
"A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
668, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 2007.
"A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
642, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
[Downloadable!] Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2007.
"A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
650, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
[Downloadable!] Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2009.
"A panel data approach to economic forecasting: The bias-corrected average forecast ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 153-164, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2005.
"Estimating the Stochastic Discount Factor without a Utility Function ,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
583, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003.
"The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building ,"
Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers
esdp03002, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS.
[Downloadable!]
Izabel Cristina de Lima & Sueli Moro & Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior, 2006.
"Ciclos E Previsão Cíclica: Um Modelo De Indicadores Antecedentes Para A Economia Brasileira ,"
Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting]
13, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
[Downloadable!]
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