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Concordance in business cycles

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Author Info
C John McDermott
Alasdair Scott (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

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Abstract

We study the properties of a test of that determines whether two time series co-move. The test computes a simple non-parametric statistic for `concordance,' which describes the proportion of time that the cycles of two series spend in the same phase. We establish the size and power properties of this test. As an illustration, the procedures are applied to output series from selected major industrial countries. We find limited evidence of widespread concordance for these countries.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number G99/7.

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Length: 27p
Date of creation: Dec 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1999/07

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  9. Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Stylised facts from output gap measures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  2. Iris Claus & Grant Scobie, 2001. "Household Net Wealth: An International Comparison," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/19, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  3. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sharon McCaw & C John McDermott, 2000. "How New Zealand adjusts to macroeconomic shocks: implications for joining a currency area," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2005. "Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Working Papers 2005-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  6. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ariño, Miguel A. & Canela, Miguel A., 2006. "Study of the dollar-euro exchange rate," IESE Research Papers D/620, IESE Business School, revised 30 Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peter McAdam, 2007. "USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Tamim Bayoumi & Thomas Helnling, 2003. "Are They All in the Same Boat? The 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages," IMF Working Papers 03/46, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "The construction of coincident and leading indicators for the euro area business cycler of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 434, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Peter McAdam, 2003. "US, Japan and the euro area - comparing business-cycle features," Working Paper Series 283, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stan du Plessis, 2006. "Business Cycles in Emerging market Economies: A New View of the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 02/2006, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  17. Daniel Kanda, 2008. "Spillovers to Ireland," IMF Working Papers 08/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Empirical investigation on the relationship between Japanese and Asian emerging equity markets," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 77-86, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 243, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  22. Theologos Dergiades & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2007. "Estimating Capacity Utilization Using a SVAR Model: An Application to the US and Canadian Economies," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(4), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  23. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity And Co-Movement Of Business Cycles With An Application To The Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2007-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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