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A Leading Index for India's Exports

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Author Info
Pami Dua (Delhi School of Economics)
Anirvan Banerji (Economic Cycle Research Institute)

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Abstract

This paper presents a method for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in Indian exports using the 36 country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of major trading partners. These leading indices are developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the new leading index of Indian exports (in level and growth form) would have anticipated most of the cyclical turns in real exports, the price of exports, and their value over the past 25 years.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Occasional papers with number 1.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 82 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cde:occpap:1

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  2. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  3. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-29.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.