A Leading Index for India's Exports
AbstractThis paper presents a method for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in Indian exports using the 36 country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of major trading partners. These leading indices are developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the new leading index of Indian exports (in level and growth form) would have anticipated most of the cyclical turns in real exports, the price of exports, and their value over the past 25 years.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Occasional papers with number 1.
Length: 82 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
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