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A Leading Index for India's Exports

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Author Info

  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics)

  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Economic Cycle Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper presents a method for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in Indian exports using the 36 country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of major trading partners. These leading indices are developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the new leading index of Indian exports (in level and growth form) would have anticipated most of the cyclical turns in real exports, the price of exports, and their value over the past 25 years.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Occasional papers with number 1.

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Length: 82 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cde:occpap:1

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References

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  1. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, octubre-d.
  4. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2010. "Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners," Discussion Papers 10-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.

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