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Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010

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  • Viviana Alejandra Alfonso

    ()

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Fernando Arias

    ()

  • José David Pulido

    ()

Abstract

Se propone una cronología para los ciclos de negocios en la concepción clásica del NBER; esto es, fechas de picos y valles que se alternan en la actividad económica determinadas sin separar las series utilizadas en sus componentes transitorio y permanente. La cronología estimada sugiere que los cinco ciclos completos que se han presentado entre 1980 y 2010 son asimétricos y tienen una duración aproximada de 5,1 años. Las expansiones duran en promedio 4,1 años mientras que las contracciones tardan 1,1 años. Los resultados se derivan de la utilización del índice de difusión acumulado con 24 series.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 651.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:651

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Keywords: Ciclos de negocios; cronología; difusión; fases; expansión; recesión; valle; pico. Classification JEL: E23; E32.;

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References

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  1. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
  2. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  4. Mauricio Avella Gómez & Leopoldo Fergusson T., 2004. "El ciclo económico - Enfoques e ilustraciones - Los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002465, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  6. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
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  9. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  10. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez & Munir Jalil, . "Cronología de los ciclos de negocios recientes en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 461, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Arthur F. Burns, 1961. "New Facts on Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 13-44 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Luis Eduardo Arango & Mauricio castillo, . "¿ Son Estilizadas las Regularidades del Ciclo Económico? Una Breve Revisión de la literatura," Borradores de Economia 115, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrés González & Sergio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2012. "Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009870, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Andrés Álvarez & Marc Hofstetter, 2013. "Job Vacancies in Colombia: 1976-2012," DOCUMENTOS CEDE, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE 011938, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

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