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Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010

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  • Viviana Alejandra Alfonso

    ()

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Fernando Arias

    ()

  • José David Pulido

    ()

Abstract

Se propone una cronología para los ciclos de negocios en la concepción clásica del NBER; esto es, fechas de picos y valles que se alternan en la actividad económica determinadas sin separar las series utilizadas en sus componentes transitorio y permanente. La cronología estimada sugiere que los cinco ciclos completos que se han presentado entre 1980 y 2010 son asimétricos y tienen una duración aproximada de 5,1 años. Las expansiones duran en promedio 4,1 años mientras que las contracciones tardan 1,1 años. Los resultados se derivan de la utilización del índice de difusión acumulado con 24 series.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 651.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:651

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Keywords: Ciclos de negocios; cronología; difusión; fases; expansión; recesión; valle; pico. Classification JEL: E23; E32.;

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References

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  1. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
  3. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Mauricio Avella Gómez & Leopoldo Fergusson T., 2004. "El ciclo económico - Enfoques e ilustraciones - Los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 002465, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez & Munir Jalil, 2007. "Cronología de los ciclos de negocios recientes en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 004287, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  10. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Mauricio Castillo, 1999. "¿Son Estilizadas Las Regularidades Del Ciclo Económico?Una Breve Revisión De La Literatura," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 003835, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Veronese, Giovanni, 2006. "New EuroCOIN: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  13. Arthur F. Burns, 1961. "New Facts on Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 13-44 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Frederick C. Mills, 1936. "Prices in Recession and Recovery: A Survey of Recent Changes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill36-1.
  15. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrés Álvarez & Marc Hofstetter, 2013. "Job Vacancies in Colombia: 1976-2012," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 011102, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Andrés González & Sergio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2012. "Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 009870, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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