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Predicting Recessions And Slowdowns--A Robust Approach

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  • Pami Dua

    (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India)

  • ANIRVAN BANERJI

    (Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) New York)

Abstract

This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate cycles is discussed. Since economies undergo structural changes over the course of a business cycle, and rapid structural changes are characteristic of developing economies in particular, practical methods for the analysis and prediction of business cycles need to be robust to such shifts. The recent Great Recession also underscores why “this time, it’s different” should not be considered a valid excuse for forecasting failure.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Working papers with number 202.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:202

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References

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  1. Perman, Roger & Scouller, John, 1999. "Business Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775249.
  2. Allan Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2003. "What is a recession?: A reprise," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1789-1797.
  3. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1950. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor50-1, May.
  4. Banerji, Anirvan & Hiris, Lorene, 2001. "A framework for measuring international business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 333-348.
  5. Geoffrey Moore, 1969. "Foreword to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods And Their Application To Western Germany, 1950-67"," NBER Chapters, in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods And Their Application To Western Germany, 1950-67, pages -3 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
  7. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Appendices to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods And Their Application To Western Germany, 1950-67"," NBER Chapters, in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods And Their Application To Western Germany, 1950-67, pages 55-111 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Foreword to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods And Their Application To Western Germany, 1950-67"," NBER Chapters, in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods And Their Application To Western Germany, 1950-67, pages -13--4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Summary to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods And Their Application To Western Germany, 1950-67"," NBER Chapters, in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods And Their Application To Western Germany, 1950-67, pages 53-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, May.
  12. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

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