A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area
AbstractThis paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provide timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 215.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
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business cycle; confidence indicators; markov switching; turning points; recession; tool to identify recessions in the euro area; Bengoechea; P�rez Quir�s;
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