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A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area

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  • Pilar Bengoechea
  • Gabriel P�rez Quir�s
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provide timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.

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    File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication566_en.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 215.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0215

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    Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
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    Related research

    Keywords: business cycle; confidence indicators; markov switching; turning points; recession; tool to identify recessions in the euro area; Bengoechea; P�rez Quir�s;

    References

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    1. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
    2. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Working Papers 237, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "Classical and modern business cycle measurement: The European case," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Mourougane, Annabelle & Roma, Moreno, 2002. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Working Paper Series 0133, European Central Bank.
    5. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    6. n/a, 1997. "Filtered least squares and measurement error," NIESR Discussion Papers 210, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    7. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    8. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
    9. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
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    Cited by:
    1. Javier Jareño, 2007. "Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0706, Banco de Espa�a.
    2. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Working Papers 144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

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