A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area
AbstractThis paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provide timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 215.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC
business cycle; confidence indicators; markov switching; turning points; recession; tool to identify recessions in the euro area; Bengoechea; P�rez Quir�s;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002.
"Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2002/20, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "Classical and modern business cycle measurement: The European case," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
- Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 2001. "Classical And Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economics Series Working Papers 9960, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, May.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2003.
"Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
237, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- n/a, 1997. "Filtered least squares and measurement error," NIESR Discussion Papers 210, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Artis, M. & Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999.
"The European Business Cycle,"
Economics Working Papers
eco99/24, European University Institute.
- Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999. "The European Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
- Annabelle Mourougane & Moreno Roma, 2003.
"Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 519-522.
- Mourougane, Annabelle & Roma, Moreno, 2002. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Working Paper Series 0133, European Central Bank.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008.
"Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data,"
144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2010. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 309-344.
- Javier Jareño, 2007. "Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy," Banco de Espaï¿½a Occasional Papers 0706, Banco de Espa�a.
- Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.