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Reconsidering the Evidence: Are Eurozone Business Cycles Converging?

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  • Dr. James Mitchell

Abstract

This paper, using 40 years of monthly industrial production data, examines the relationship between the business cycles of the 12 Eurozone countries. Since estimates of the business cycle have been found to be sensitive to how the cycle is measured, a range of alternative measures are considered. We focus on both parametric and nonparametric univariate measures of the Ôclassical' and Ôgrowth' cycles. We then investigate whether Eurozone business cycles have converged. This is based on an analysis of the distribution of bivariate correlation coefficients between the 12 countries' business cycles. This extends previous work that has tested for convergence, in a similar manner by focusing on correlation, but has not considered the entire distribution, instead focusing on the mean correlation coefficient or particular bivariate correlation coefficients. Although empirical inference about individual Euro-zone business cycles is found to be sensitive to the measure of the business cycle considered, our measure of convergence between the Eurozone business cycles exhibits common features across the alternative measures of the business cycle. Interestingly, we find that there have been periods of convergence, identified by the distribution tending to unity, and periods of divergence. Although further data are required to corroborate the story, there is evidence to suggest that the Euro-zone has entered a period of convergence after the clear period of divergence in the early 1990s in the aftermath of German unification and at the time of the currency crises in Europe. This is encouraging for the successful operation of a common monetary policy in the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. James Mitchell, 2003. "Reconsidering the Evidence: Are Eurozone Business Cycles Converging?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 210, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:210
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    Cited by:

    1. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 215, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Bojeşteanu, Elena & Manu, Ana Simona, 2011. "Analiza empirică a sincronizării ciclului de afaceri şi a similarităţii şocurilor între România şi zona euro [Empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization and shock similarity between Roman," MPRA Paper 31295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 239-259.
    4. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic states and Europe: common factors of economic activity," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 75-96, October.
    5. Gyódi Kristóf & Sobolewski Maciej & Ziembiński Michał, 2017. "What Drives Price Dispersion in the European E-commerce Industry?," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 3(50), pages 53-71, December.
    6. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    7. Iulia Siedschlag, 2008. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/3 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    8. Ifrim Mihaela & Ignat Ion, 2009. "The European Business Cycle," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 332-336, May.
    9. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou & Eftymios Tsionas & Tryphon Kollintzas, 2009. "Stylized Facts of Prices and Interest Rates over the Business Cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2613-2627.
    10. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John & Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2006. "Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Forecasts and Policy Analysis, Autumn Report 2006," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number sustat22, August.

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