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Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy

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  • Javier Jareño

    ()
    (Banco de España)

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    Abstract

    Opinion-based surveys, or quantitative surveys, are potentially very powerful tools for conjunctural analysis in view of their rapid availability and nature. This paper addresses the usefulness of these surveys for monitoring the Spanish economy. To do this it analyses the two most important opinion-based surveys, namely the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey and the NTC-Research Purchasing Managers’ Indices, and their relationship to the Quarterly National Accounts macroeconomic data and to the Spanish economy's key conjunctural indicators. The results show that opinion-based surveys are generally useful tools for the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy, although they should be used with caution. Their usefulness is apparent in all the areas analysed: as indicators of economic developments, as pointers to changes in the trend of the economy and as tools for predicting the economic situation.

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/07/Fic/do0706.pdf
    File Function: First spanish version, December 2007
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers with number 0706.

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    Length: 76 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:0706

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    Keywords: opinion survey; short-term analysis; Spain;

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    1. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0419, Banco de Espa�a.
    2. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
    3. Bruno, Giancarlo & Lupi, Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," MPRA Paper 42332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. John A. Cotsomitis & Andy C. C. Kwan, 2004. "Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys," Departmental Working Papers, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics _161, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    6. Lemmens, Aurelie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2005. "On the predictive content of production surveys: A pan-European study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 363-375.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    8. Maurizio Bovi, 2004. "Consumer Surveys and Reality," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0408012, EconWPA.
    9. Alain N. Kabundi, 2004. "Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 04/69, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
    11. Raquel Henriques dos Santos, 2003. "The Use of Qualitative Data for Short Term Analysis," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel P�rez Quir�s, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 215, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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