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Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case

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Abstract

This paper intends to harmonize two different approaches to the analysis of the business cycle and in doing so it retrieves the stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe. We start with the “classical” approach proposed in Burns and Mitchell (1946) of dating and analyzing the business cycle; we then adopt the “modern” alternative: the Markov-switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR). The model's regime probabilities provide an optimal statistical inference of the turning point of the European business cycle. For assessing the capacity of the parametric approach to generate the stylized facts of the classical cycle in Europe, the stylized facts of the original data are compared to those of simulated data. The MS-VAR model is shown to be a good candidate for use as an statistical instrument to improve the understanding of the business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2002/20.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2002_20

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Keywords: International business cycles; European Union; Markov Switching; Structural breaks; Time series analysis.;

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References

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  1. Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
  2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar Prasad, 1999. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 99/154, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Krozlig, H.M., 1997. "International Business Cycles: Regime Shifts in the Stochastic Process of Economic Growth," Economics Series Working Papers 99194, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  5. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  6. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr.
  7. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  8. Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
  9. Phillips, Kerk L., 1991. "A two-country model of stochastic output with changes in regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 121-142, August.
  10. Gregory D. Hess & Shigeru Iwata, 1995. "Measuring business cycle features," Research Working Paper 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  12. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ferrara, Laurent & Guégan, Dominique, 2005. "Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models," MPRA Paper 4389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel P�rez Quir�s, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 215, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Ralf Brüggemann & Jana Riedel, 2010. "Nonlinear Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the UK," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2010-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  4. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
  5. AKA, Bédia F., 2009. "Business Cycle And Sectoral Fluctuations: A Nonlinear Model For Côte D’Ivoire," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1), pages 111-126.
  6. Bessec Marie & Bouabdallah Othman, 2005. "What Causes The Forecasting Failure of Markov-Switching Models? A Monte Carlo Study," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, June.
  7. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-dependent synchronization of growth cycles between Japan and East Asia," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  8. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00185372 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2163-2173.
  10. Emanuel Mönch & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2005(1), pages 43-69.
  11. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
  13. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4).

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