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Fractional integration and business cycle features

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  • Candelon, Bertrand
  • Gil-Alaña, Luis A.

Abstract

We show in this article that fractionally integrated univariate models for GDP may lead to a better replication of business cycle characteristics. We firstly show that the business cycle features are clearly affected by the degree of integration as well as by the other short run components of the series. Then, we model the real GDP in France, the UK and the US by means of fractionally ARIMA (ARFIMA) models, and show that the three time series can be specified in terms of this type of models with orders of integration higher than one but smaller than two. Comparing the ARFIMA specifications with those based on ARIMA models, we show via simulations that the former better describes the business cycles features of the data at least for the cases of the UK and the US. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2001,46.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200146

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Keywords: Long memory; Business cycles; Fractional integration;

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References

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  13. Gil-Alana, L. & Robinson, P.M., 1998. "Testing of Seasonal Fractional Integration in U.K. and Japanese Consumption and Income," Economics Working Papers eco98/20, European University Institute.
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  25. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2330, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Long memory at the long run and at the cyclical frequencies: modelling real wages in England, 1260–1994," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 83-93, March.
  3. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS.
  4. L.A. Gil-Alanaa, 2007. "Testing The Existence of Multiple Cycles in Financial and Economic Time Series," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, May.
  5. Artiach, Miguel, 2012. "Leverage, skewness and amplitude asymmetric cycles," MPRA Paper 41267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Long Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 2046, CESifo Group Munich.

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