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A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries

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  • L. A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

In this article we examine the degree of persistence of the population series in 19 OECD countries during the period 1948-2000 by means of using fractionally integrated techniques. We use a parametric procedure due to Robinson (1994) that permits us to test I(d) statistical models. The results show that the order of integration of the series substantially varies across countries and also depending on how we specify the I(0) disturbances. Overall, Germany and Portugal present the smallest degrees of integration while population in Japan appears as the most non-stationary series.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0266476032000107169
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2003)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1147-1159

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Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:30:y:2003:i:10:p:1147-1159

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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  5. L A Gil-Alaña & Peter M Robinson, 2000. "Testing of Seasonal Fractional Integration in UK and Japanese Consumption and Income," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/402, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  6. Chambers, Marcus J, 1998. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-72, November.
  7. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
  8. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
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  11. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
  12. L. A. Gil-Alaña & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  16. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  17. L A Gil-Alana & Peter M. Robinson, 2000. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2051, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Théophile Azomahou & Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra, 2007. "Spatial Persistence of Demographic Shocks and Economic Growth," Working Papers 07-04, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  2. Tapas K. Mishra, 2006. "A Further Look into the Demography-based GDP Forecasting Method," Working Papers of BETA 2006-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  3. Tapas Mishra & Alexia Prskawetz & Mamata Parhi & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Shock persistence in output and the role of stochastic population growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2437-2449.
  4. Tapas K., MISHRA, 2004. "The Role of Components of Demographic Change in Economic Development : Whither the Trend ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  5. Azomahou, Theophile & Mishra, Tapas, 2009. "Stochastic environmental effects, demographic variation, and economic growth," MERIT Working Papers 016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  6. Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Demographic volatility and economic growth: convention and beyond," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-45, January.
  7. Azomahou, Theophile & Mishra, Tapas, 2009. "Stochastic environmental effects, demographic variation, and economic growth," MERIT Working Papers 016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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