This paper studies how the spatial effects of demographic system affects economic growth of different countries. Population growth shocks (whether in aggregate or in disaggregate form) in general have spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. By constructing a ‘demographic distance’ function based on both average age-shares and their stochastic time series characteristics, we show that persistence of spatial demographic system has had discernible effects on economic growth of Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America and Offshore countries in the last four decades. While the temporal study of demographic system on economic growth fluctuations is getting popularity, this paper goes a step further to explain persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal features by studying a spatial VAR model of demography and economic growth.
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Paper provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its series Working Papers with number
07-04.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
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