Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Further Look into the Demography-based GDP Forecasting Method

Contents:

Author Info

  • Tapas K. Mishra

Abstract

Demography-based income forecasting has recently gained enormous popu- larity. Malmberg and Lindh (ML, 2005) in an important contribution forecast global income by incorporating demographic age information where the vari- ables were assumed to be stationary. Drawing on the insights from recent theoretical and empirical advances, in this paper we re-examine the stationary assumption and argue in favour of a more flexible framework where ’stationar- ity’ is a limiting condition of the stochastic demographic behavior. Based on Mishra and Urbain (2005) where we showed that the age-specific population display varied long-term and short-term dynamics, we invest this idea in the present paper for long-term projections of per capita income (till 2050) of a set of developed and developing countries and the World income. We find that GDP forecast that corroborates demographic information have higher forecasts than without demographic information - a result consistent with ML, but we find that embedding ’memory’ features of demographic variables lead to higher forecast that ML. The relevance of stochastic shocks in GDP forecasting is drawn in this paper and implications of these forecast in the presence of fluc- tuating age-shares in those countries are discussed.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2006/2006-17.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2006-17.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2006-17

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PEGE. 61, Aven. de la Forêt-Noire 67000 Strasbourg
Phone: +33 3 68 85 20 69
Fax: +33 3 68 85 20 70
Email:
Web page: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Global income forecasting; Long memory; Demographic components; Economic growth.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Giuseppe Diana & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2004. "Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 385-402, October.
  2. Thomas Seegmuller, 2001. "Concurrence Imparfaite, Variabilité du Taux de Marge et Fluctuations Endogènes," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2001-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  3. Herrade Igersheim, 2006. "A.K. Sen et J.E. Roemer : une même approche de la responsabilité ?," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2006-08, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  4. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
  5. Phu Nguyen Van & Théophile Azomahou, 2003. "Déforestation, croissance économique et population. Une étude sur données de panel," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(4), pages 835-855.
  6. Giuseppe DIANA, 2000. "Wage Indexation, Central Bank Independence and the Cost of Disinflation," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2000-03, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  7. Frederic Koessler & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2004. "Parimutuel Betting under Asymmetric Information," Papers on Strategic Interaction, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group 2003-34, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
  9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:10:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Llerena, Patrick & Oltra, Vanessa, 2002. "Diversity of innovative strategy as a source of technological performance," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 179-201, June.
  11. Giovanni Dosi & Patrick Llerena & Mauro Sylos Labin, 2005. "Science-Technology-Industry Links and the ”European Paradox”: Some Notes on the Dynamics of Scientific and Technological Research in Europe," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  12. Gilbert KOENIG & Irem ZEYNELOGLU, 2006. "Efficiency and coordination of fiscal policy in open economies," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2006-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  13. Julien PENIN, 2005. "Open knowledge disclosure, incomplete information and collective innovations," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-10, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  14. Laurent Gagnol & Jean-Alain Héraud, 2001. "Impact économique régional d'un pôle universitaire : application au cas Strasbourgeois," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, Armand Colin, vol. 0(4), pages 581-604.
  15. Frédéric KOESSLER & Anthony ZIEGELMEYER, 2000. "Tie-breaking Rules and Informational Cascades: A Note," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2000-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  16. Frédéric KOESSLER & Anthony ZIEGELMEYER & Marie-Hélène BROIHANNE, 2002. "The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Sequential parimutuel Betting with Non-Expected Utility Players," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2002-12, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  17. Giraud Gael & Quah John K.-H., 2003. "Homothetic or Cobb-Douglas Behavior Through Aggregation," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
  18. Phu NGUYEN VAN, 2002. "Endogenous Population and Environmental Quality," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2002-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  19. Nicolas Carayol & Pascale Roux, 2006. "Knowledge flows and the geography of networks. A strategic model of small worlds formation," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2006-16, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  20. Giuseppe Dari-Mattiacci & Bruno Deffains, 2006. "Uncertainty of Law and the Legal Process," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2006-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  21. Herrade IGERSHEIM, 2004. "Du paradoxe libéral-parétien à un concept de métaclassement des préférences," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2004-16, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  22. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium," Papers, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory 9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  23. Nicolas CARAYOL & Thuc Uyen NGUYEN THI, 2004. "Why do Academic Scientists Engage in Interdisciplinary Research ?," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2004-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  24. AZOMAHOU, Théophile & VAN PHU, Nguyen, 2001. "Economic growth and CO2 emissions: a nonparametric approach," CORE Discussion Papers, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 2001012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  25. Marc Gaudry & Ulrich Blum & Tran Liem, 2000. "Tie Turning Box-Cox including Quadratic Forms in Regression," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2000-13, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  26. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  27. Th. Azomahou & J. El Ouardighi & Ph. Nguyen Van & Th. Kim Cuong Pham, 2004. "Semiparametric Analysis of the Regional Convergence Process," THEMA Working Papers, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise 2004-22, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  28. Müge Ozman, 2006. "Networks and Innovation : A Survey of Empirical Literature," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2006-07, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  29. Giorgio Fagiolo & Marco Valente & Nicolaas J. Vriend, 2005. "Segregation in Networks," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-14, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  30. Keser, Claudia & Willinger, Marc, 2007. "Theories of behavior in principal-agent relationships with hidden action," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1514-1533, August.
  31. Phu NGUYEN VAN, 2003. "A semiparametric analysis of determinants of protected area," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2003-03, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  32. Gaël Giraud & Sonia Weyers, 2004. "Strategic market games with a finite horizon and incomplete markets," Economic Theory, Springer, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 467-491, March.
  33. Gaël Giraud & Isabelle Maret, 2007. "The exact insensitivity of market budget shares and the "balancing effect"," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07023, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  34. Sandra Lechner & Anne Rozan & François Laisney, 2003. "A model of the anchoring effect in dichotomous choice valuation with follow-up," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2003-07, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  35. Thomas SEEGMULLER & Alban VERCHÈRE, 2005. "Environment in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Endogenous Labor Supply : a Dynamic Analysis," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  36. Deffains, Bruno & Demougin, Dominique, 2008. "Customary versus technological advancement tests," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 106-112, June.
  37. Rabah Amir & Isabelle Maret & Michael Troge, 2004. "On Taxation Pass-Through for a Monopoly Firm," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2004-10, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  38. Phu NGUYEN VAN & Ulrich KAISER & François LAISNEY, 2001. "The Performance of German Firms in the Business-Related Service Sectors: A Dynamic Analysis," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2001-16, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  39. Nicolas Carayol & Pascale Roux, 2006. "A strategic model of complex networks formation," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2006-02, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  40. Phu Nguyen Van, 2005. "Distribution Dynamics of CO2 Emissions," THEMA Working Papers, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise 2005-10, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  41. Théophile AZOMAHOU & Phu NGUYEN VAN & T. Kim-Cuong PHAM, 2003. "Relativité de la satisfaction dans la vie : une étude sur données de panel," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2003-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  42. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society 1504, Econometric Society.
  43. Blandine ZIMMER, 2005. "Coordination des négociations salariales en UEM : un rôle majeur pour la BCE," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  44. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2000. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales), Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) 2000007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  45. L. A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1147-1159.
  46. Müge Ozman, 2006. "Knowledge Integration and Network Formation," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2006-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  47. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  48. Julien Pénin, 2003. "Patents versus ex-post rewards : a new look," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques 20-19, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
  49. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  50. Thomas Seegmuller & Alban Verchere, 2002. "Pollution as a source of endogenous fluctuations and periodic welfare inequality in OLG economies," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2002-18, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  51. Gilbert KOENIG, 2005. "Les modèles de type Mundell–Fleming revisités," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-03, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  52. Thomas Seegmuller, 2003. "Endogenous fluctuations and public services in a simple OLG economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-7.
  53. Bruno Deffains & Dominique Demougin, 2006. "Institutional Competition, Political Process and Holdup," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany SFB649DP2006-027, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  54. Roberto FONTANA & Aldo GEUNA & Mireille MATT, 2005. "Factors Affecting University–Industry R&D Collaboration : The importance of screening and signalling," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-07, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  55. Giuseppe DIANA & Blandine ZIMMER, 2005. "Is Monetary Union Necessarily Counterproductive ?," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  56. Thi Kim Cuong PHAM, 2004. "Wealth distribution, endogenous fiscal policy and growth: status-seeking implications," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2004-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  57. Schmitt, Andre & Spaeter, Sandrine, 2005. "Improving the prevention of environmental risks with convertible bonds," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 637-657, November.
  58. Théophile AZOMAHOU & Phu NGUYEN VAN & Marcus WAGNER, 2001. "Determinants of Environmental and Economic Performance of Firms: An Empirical Analysis of the European Paper Industry," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2001-22, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  59. Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 1995. "Endogenous Population Growth May Imply Chaos," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 59-80, February.
  60. Stéphane Betrand & Kene Boun My & Alban Verchère, 2005. "Faire émerger la coopération internationale : une approche expérimentale comparée du bilatéralisme et du multilatéralisme," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2005-13, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  61. Ulrich Blum & Marc Gaudry, 2000. "SNUS-2.5, a Multimoment Analysis of Road Demand, Accidents and their Severity in Germany, 1968 – 1989," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2000-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  62. Gael GIRAUD & Isabelle MARET, 2002. "Modelling Behavioral Heterogeneity," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg 2002-22, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2006-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.