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A Further Look into the Demography-based GDP Forecasting Method

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Tapas K. Mishra

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Abstract

Demography-based income forecasting has recently gained enormous popu- larity. Malmberg and Lindh (ML, 2005) in an important contribution forecast global income by incorporating demographic age information where the vari- ables were assumed to be stationary. Drawing on the insights from recent theoretical and empirical advances, in this paper we re-examine the stationary assumption and argue in favour of a more flexible framework where ’stationar- ity’ is a limiting condition of the stochastic demographic behavior. Based on Mishra and Urbain (2005) where we showed that the age-specific population display varied long-term and short-term dynamics, we invest this idea in the present paper for long-term projections of per capita income (till 2050) of a set of developed and developing countries and the World income. We find that GDP forecast that corroborates demographic information have higher forecasts than without demographic information - a result consistent with ML, but we find that embedding ’memory’ features of demographic variables lead to higher forecast that ML. The relevance of stochastic shocks in GDP forecasting is drawn in this paper and implications of these forecast in the presence of fluc- tuating age-shares in those countries are discussed.

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Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2006-17.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2006-17

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Related research
Keywords: Global income forecasting Long memory Demographic components Economic growth.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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