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A Spatial Analysis of Sectoral Complementarity

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Author Info
Timothy G. Conley
Bill Dupor
Abstract

This paper presents a spatial econometric method for characterizing productivity comovement across sectors of the U.S. economy. Input-output relations provide an economic distance measure that is used to characterize interactions between sectors, as well as conduct estimation and inference. We construct two different economic distance measures. One metric implies that two sectors are close to one another if they use inputs of other industrial sectors in nearly the same proportion, and the other metric implies that sectors are close if their outputs are used by the same sectors. Our model holds that covariance in productivity growth across sectors is a function of economic distance. We find that (1) positive cross-sector covariance of productivity growth generates a substantial fraction of the variance in aggregate productivity, (2) cross-sector productivity covariance tends to be greatest between sectors with similar input relations, and (3) there are constant to modest increasing returns to scale. We test and reject the hypothesis that these correlations are due to a common shock.

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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 111 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 311-352
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:111:y:2003:i:2:p:311-352

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  1. Yixiao Sun, 2005. "Estimation and Inference in Panel Structure Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2005-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  2. Timothy Conley & Francesca Molinari, 2005. "Spatial correlation robust inference with Errors in Location or Distance," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/05, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2005. "Is Firm Pricing State or Time-Dependent? Evidence from US Manufacturing," Macroeconomics 0511005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2006. "Panels with Nonstationary Multifactor Error Structures," IZA Discussion Papers 2243, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Robert J. Vigfusson, 2003. "How does the border affect productivity? evidence from American and Canadian manufacturing industries," International Finance Discussion Papers 788, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Holly, Sean & Petrella, Ivan, 2009. "Factor Demand Linkages, Technology Shocks and the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 18120, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M.H., 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0520, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2006. "A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  9. TAKEDA Yosuke & UCHIDA Ichiro, 2009. "Technological Externalities and Economic Distance: A case of the Japanese automobile suppliers," Discussion papers 09051, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  10. Mamata Parhi & Tapas Mishra, 2008. "Spatial Growth Volatility and Age-structured Human Capital Dynamics in Europe," Working Papers of BETA 2008-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
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  11. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  12. Charles I. Jones, 2008. "Intermediate Goods, Weak Links, and Superstars: A Theory of Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 13834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  14. Holly, S. & Petrella, I., 2008. "Factor demand linkages and the business cycle: Interpreting aggregate fluctuations as sectoral fluctuations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0827, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Bryan S. Graham & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2004. "Rich nations, poor nations: how much can multiple equilibria explain?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp017, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Mishra, Tapas & Jumah, Adusei & Parhi, Mamata, 2008. "Age-structured Human Capital and Spatial Total Factor Productivity Dynamics," Economics Series 226, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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