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The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting

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Francis X. Diebold

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Abstract

Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to" improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and" falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed macroeconomic forecasting is poised for resurgence.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6290.

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Date of creation: Nov 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6290

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  25. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Rosen, Sherwin & Murphy, Kevin M & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1994. "Cattle Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 468-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1998. "Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 188-201, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David G. Loomis & James E. Cox, Jr., 2000. "A Course in Economic Forecasting: Rationale and Content," Journal of Economic Education, Helen Dwight Reid Foundation, vol. 31(4), pages 349-357. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & José L. Torres, 2009. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an Augmented VAR-DSGE model," Working Papers 2009-1, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  3. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. V. Pandit, 2008. "Structural Modeling under Challenge," Working Papers id:1622, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  5. Viviana Fernández, 2006. "Forecasting crude oil and natural gas spot prices by classification methods," Documentos de Trabajo 229, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 078, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "Macroeconometric Modelling In An Oil Exporting Country: The Case Of Iran," Economics Working Papers wp07-14, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data," Staff Report 243, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  11. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. V. Pandit, 2001. "Structural Modelling Under Challenge," Working papers 98, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 16-29. [Downloadable!]
  14. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasting: Debunking a few old wives' tales," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 395, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. V. Pandit, 2000. "Macroeconometric Policy Modeling for India: A Review of Some Analytical Issues," Working papers 74, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  17. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. V. Pandit, 2009. "Macroeconometric Policy Modeling for India: A Review of Some Analytical Issues," Working Papers id:1955, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  19. Valadkhani, A., 2005. "Macroeconomic Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1). [Downloadable!]
  20. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2002. "Can We Beat the Random Walk Forecasts of Out-of-Sample Exchange Rates? A Structural Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 233, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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