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Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics

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  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

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Abstract

This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 669.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp669

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Keywords: Business cycles; NBER; Forecasting;

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