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Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy

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Robert W. Fogel

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Abstract

This paper sketches a theory of the secular decline in morbidity and mortality that takes account of changes in human physiology since 1700. The synergism between technological and physiological improvements has produced a form of human evolution, much more rapid than natural selection, which is still ongoing in both OECD and developing countries. Thermodynamic and physiological aspects of economic growth are defined and their impact on growth rates is assessed. Implications of this theory for population forecasting, measurement of national income, demand for leisure, pension policies, and for the demand for health care are considered.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4638.

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Date of creation: Sep 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4638

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Robert W. Fogel, 1984. "Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality Since 1700: Some Preliminary Findings," NBER Working Papers 1402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Shammas, Carole, 1984. "The eighteenth-century English diet and economic change," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 254-269, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Atack, Jeremy & Bateman, Fred, 1992. "How Long Was the Workday in 1880?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(01), pages 129-160, March. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Newhouse, Joseph P, 1992. "Medical Care Costs: How Much Welfare Loss?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 3-21, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Seckler, David, 1980. ""Malnutrition": An Intellectual Odyssey," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(02), December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eckstein, Zvi & Schultz, T. Paul & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1984. "Short-run fluctuations in fertility and mortality in pre-industrial Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-317, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Freudenberger, Herman & Cummins, Gaylord, 1976. "Health, work, and leisure before the industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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