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Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review

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  • Booth, Heather
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 547-581

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:22:y:2006:i:3:p:547-581

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    8. Oliveira, M. M. & Mexia, J. T., 2004. "AIDS in Portugal: endemic versus epidemic forecasting scenarios for mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 131-135.
    9. Harald Hannerz, 2001. "Manhood Trials and the Law of Mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(7), pages 185-202, May.
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    11. Ronald Lee, 2000. "Long-Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(1), pages 137-143.
    12. Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Stochastic demographic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 315-327, November.
    13. Andrei Rogers & Luis Castro & Megan Lea, 2005. "Model Migration Schedules: Three Alternative Linear Parameter Estimation Methods," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-38.
    14. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ronald D. Lee & Qi Li, 2004. "Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts," Working Papers wp073, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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    16. Morgan, S. Philip & Chen, Renbao, 1992. "Predicting childlessness for recent cohorts of American women," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 477-493, November.
    17. Miller, Robert B., 1986. "A bivariate model for total fertility rate and mean age of childbearing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 133-140, April.
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    19. Joshua R. Goldstein & Guy Stecklov, 2002. "Long-Range Population Projections Made Simple," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 121-141.
    20. Long, John F., 1984. "U.S. national population projections methods: A view from four forecasting traditions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 231-239, October.
    21. Nan Li & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2000. "The solution of time-dependent population models," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 311-329.
    22. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454, May.
    23. Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "On the forecasting of mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 379-401, July.
    24. Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    25. Bos, Eduard & Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1992. "The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa : Short- and long-term projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 367-384, November.
    26. Renbao Chen & S. Morgan, 1991. "Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States," Demography, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 513-533, November.
    27. John Bongaarts & Rodolfo A. Bulatao, 1999. "Completing the Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(3), pages 515-529.
    28. Ryan D. Edwards & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2005. "Inequality in Life Spans and a New Perspective on Mortality Convergence Across Industrialized Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 645-674.
    29. Ahlburg, Dennis A. & Land, Kenneth C., 1992. "Population forecasting: Guest editors' introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 289-299, November.
    30. Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1992. "Stochastic population forecasts and their uses," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 385-391, November.
    31. John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
    32. Bloom, David E. & Glied, Sherry, 1992. "Projecting the number of new AIDS cases in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 339-365, November.
    33. Smith, Stanley K. & Sincich, Terry, 1992. "Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 495-508, November.
    34. Smith, Stanley K., 1997. "Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 557-565, December.
    35. McDonald, John, 1983. "The emergence of countercyclical US fertility: A reassessment of the evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 421-436.
    36. Alho, Juha M., 1992. "The magnitude of error due to different vital processes in population forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 301-314, November.
    37. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Carl Boe, . "Mortality Change and Forecasting: How Much and How Little Do We Know?," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-2, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    38. A. R. Thatcher, 1999. "The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 162(1), pages 5-43.
    39. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
    40. S. Morgan, 1982. "Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 315-334, August.
    41. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
    42. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
    43. Sithole, Terry Z. & Haberman, Steven & Verrall, Richard J., 2000. "An investigation into parametric models for mortality projections, with applications to immediate annuitants' and life office pensioners' data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-312, December.
    44. Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Boe, Carl, 1999. "Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 259-271, July.
    45. Harald Hannerz, 2001. "An extension of relational methods in mortality estimations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(10), pages 337-368, June.
    46. A Rogers & R Raquillet & L J Castro, 1978. "Model migration schedules and their applications," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 10(5), pages 475-502, May.
    47. McNown, Robert & Rogers, Andrei, 1992. "Forecasting cause-specific mortality using time series methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 413-432, November.
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