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Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility

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  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • José Antonio Ortega

    (Universidad de Salamanca)

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a new set of tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures in order to account for two distinct implications caused by delays in childbearing: tempo distortions imply an underestimation of the quantum of fertility in observed period data, and the fertility aging effect reduces higher parity births because the respective exposure is shifted to older ages when the probability of having another child is quite low. Our measures remove the former distortion and provide means to assess the latter aging effect. The measures therefore provide a unified toolkit of fertility indices that (a) facilitate the description and analysis of past period fertility trends in terms of synthetic cohort measures, and (b) allow the projection of the timing, level and distribution of cohort fertility conditional on a specific postponement scenario. Due to their explicit relation to cohort behavior, these measures extend and improve the existing adjustment of the total fertility rate. We apply these methods to Sweden from 1970 to 1999.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
Issue (Month): 6 (March)
Pages: 91-144

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Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:6

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Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

Related research

Keywords: cohort fertility; fertility; fertility postponement; fertility projection; low fertility; parity progression; parity progression measures; Sweden; tempo adjustment;

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References

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  1. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  2. Tomas Frejka & Gérard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 103-132.
  3. Hans-Peter Kohler & Axel Skytthe & Kaare Christensen, 2001. "The age at first birth and completed fertility reconsidered: findings from a sample of identical twins," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2001-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  4. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2000. "The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2000-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  5. Young J. Kim & Robert Schoen, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts-Feeney Adjustment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 554-559.
  6. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190, March.
  7. G. Calot & T. Frejka, 2001. "L'évolution du calendrier des naissances par génération dans les pays à basse fécondité à la fin du XXe siècle," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 56(3), pages 397-420.
  8. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Hans-Peter Kohler & Iliana Kohler, 2001. "Fertility decline in Russia after 1990: the role of economic uncertainty and labor market crises," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2001-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  2. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
  3. FFF1Gunnar NNN1Andersson, 2004. "Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7), pages 155-176, April.
  4. Tomas Frejka & Tomas Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 1: Fertility in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(3), pages 15-46, July.
  5. Irena E. Kotowska & Janina Jóźwiak & Anna Matysiak & Anna Baranowska, 2008. "Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(22), pages 795-854, July.
  6. Kenneth Harttgen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development with Fertility?," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers, Courant Research Centre PEG 114, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  7. Ryuichi Kaneko, 2003. "Elaboration of the Coale-McNeil Nuptiality Model as The Generalized Log Gamma Distribution," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(10), pages 223-262, November.
  8. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
  9. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.
  10. Tomas Sobotka & Anna Å t’astná & Krystof Zeman & Dana Hamplová & Vladimíra Kantorová, 2008. "Czech Republic: A rapid transformation of fertility and family behaviour after the collapse of state socialism," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(14), pages 403-454, July.
  11. Anastasia Kostaki & Paraskevi Peristera, 2007. "Modeling fertility in modern populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(6), pages 141-194, March.
  12. Bongoh Kye, 2012. "Cohort Effects or Period Effects? Fertility Decline in South Korea in the Twentieth Century," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 387-415, June.
  13. Joshua R. Goldstein, 2010. "A behavioral Gompertz model for cohort fertility schedules in low and moderate fertility populations," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2010-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  14. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
  15. Tomas Sobotka, 2003. "Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 8(6), pages 151-214, April.
  16. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190, March.
  17. Gunnar Andersson, 2003. "Childbearing developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: a comparison," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2003-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  18. Faragó, Miklós, 2011. "Paritásfüggő összetett termékenységi mutatók Magyarországon és különbségeik dekompozíciója
    [Parity-dependent complex indicators of fertility in Hungary and decomposition of difference
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 970-993.

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