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Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach

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Author Info
Rob J. Hyndman ()
Md. Shahid Ullah ()

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Abstract

We propose a new method for forecasting age-specific mortality and fertility rates observed over time. Our approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and other information. We combine ideas from functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics to form a methodology that is widely applicable to any functional time series data, and age-specific mortality and fertility in particular. We show that our model is a generalization of the Lee-Carter model commonly used in mortality and fertility forecasting. The methodology is applied to French mortality data and Australian fertility data, and we show that the forecasts obtained are superior to those from the Lee-Carter method and several of its variants.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2005/wp2-05.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 2/05.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2005-2

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Related research
Keywords: Fertility Forecasting; Functional Data; Mortality Forecasting; Nonparametric Smoothing; Principal Components; Robustness.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. N. Locantore & J. Marron & D. Simpson & N. Tripoli & J. Zhang & K. Cohen & Graciela Boente & Ricardo Fraiman & Babette Brumback & Christophe Croux & Jianqing Fan & Alois Kneip & John Marden & Daniel P, 1999. "Robust principal component analysis for functional data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-73, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hyndman, R.J. & Koehler, A.B. & Ord, J.K. & Snyder, R.D., 2001. "Prediction Intervals for Exponential Smoothing State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/2001, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310, October. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman, 2009. "Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2006. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. George Atsalakis & Dimitrios Nezis & George Matalliotakis & Camelia Ioana Ucenic & Christos Skiadas, 2007. "Forecasting Mortality Rate Using a Neural Network with Fuzzy Inference System," Working Papers 0806, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rob J. Hyndman & Han Lin Shang, 2008. "Rainbow plots, Bagplots and Boxplots for Functional Data," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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