Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
AbstractWe compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986-2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.
Volume (Year): 15 (2006)
Issue (Month): 9 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
functional data; Lee-Carter method; mortality forecasting; nonparametric smoothing; principal components; state space;
Other versions of this item:
- Heather Booth & Rob J Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007.
"Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002.
"A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
- Hyndman, R.J. & Koehler, A.B. & Snyder, R.D. & Grose, S., 2000. "A State Space Framework for Automatic Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Arthur Renshaw & Steven Haberman, 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a parallel generalized linear modelling approach for England and Wales mortality projections," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(1), pages 119-137.
- Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "On the forecasting of mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 379-401, July.
- Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-272, October.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Editorial Office).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.