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Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level

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  • Lee, Ronald D.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 9 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 187-202

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:9:y:1993:i:2:p:187-202

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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Cited by:
  1. Ryan D. Edwards & Ronald D. Lee & Michael W. Anderson & Shripad Tuljapurkar & Carl Boe, 2003. "Key Equations in the Tuljapurkar-Lee Model of the Social Security System," Working Papers wp044, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  2. W. Lutz & S. Scherbov, 1997. "Sensitivity Analysis of Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections in the Case of Austria," Working Papers ir97048, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  3. Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2006. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  4. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2006. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," NBER Working Papers 12805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Wolfgang Lutz & Sergei Scherbov & Gui Ying Cao & Qiang Ren & Xiaoying Zheng, 2007. "China's uncertain demographic present and future," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 5(1), pages 37-59.
  6. Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  7. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
  8. Yoichi Okita & Wade D. Pfau & Giang Thanh Long, 2009. "A Stochastic Forecast Model For Japan'S Population," GRIPS Discussion Papers 09-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  9. Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Boe, Carl, 1999. "Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 259-271, July.
  10. Auerbach, Alan J. & Lee, Ronald, 2011. "Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-2), pages 16-27, February.
  11. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  12. Rueda, Cristina & Rodríguez, Pilar, 2010. "State space models for estimating and forecasting fertility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 712-724, October.
  13. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel Clark & François Pelletier & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig, 2011. "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 815-839, August.
  14. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
  15. Giang, Thanh Long & Pfau, Wade Donald, 2008. "Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 9931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454, May.

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