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Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models

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  • Smith, Stanley K.

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  • Smith, Stanley K., 1997. "Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 557-565, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:13:y:1997:i:4:p:557-565
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yokuma, J. Thomas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1995. "Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 591-597, December.
    2. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
    3. anonymous, 1987. "Comment on proposed actions," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 296-297.
    4. Smith, Stanley K. & Sincich, Terry, 1992. "Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 495-508, November.
    5. Steve Murdock & F. Leistritz & Rita Hamm & Sean-Shong Hwang & Banoo Parpia, 1984. "An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic-demographic projection model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(3), pages 383-404, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ramirez, David A. & Walke, Adam G., 2013. "An Econometric Analysis of Population Change in Arkansas," MPRA Paper 59588, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2013.
    3. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    4. Osman Gulseven, 2016. "Forecasting Population and Demographic Composition of Kuwait Until 2030," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1429-1435.
    5. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    6. Michael P. Cameron & William Cochrane, 2015. "Using Land-Use Modelling to Statistically Downscale Population Projections to Small Areas," Working Papers in Economics 15/12, University of Waikato.
    7. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Walke, Adam G. & Villavicencio, Diana, 2015. "An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico," MPRA Paper 71141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2015.
    8. Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua R. Goldstein & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2012. "New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Colin Small & J. Eric Bickel, 2022. "Model Complexity and Accuracy: A COVID-19 Case Study," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 354-383, December.

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